Research On Disaster Model And Pre-warning Method Of Railway Water Disaster

Abstract:Water disasters posed a great threat to China’s railway operation, but the railway area distribution and early-warning system is deficient, and its specifications haven’t formulated relevant rules yet. Supported by the The railway ministry science and technology research and development projects’Study on the technology and application of water disaster prevention and emergency rescue on high-speed railway’(2011G017-C) and the Graduate degree thesis Innovation Foundation of Central South University’Study on the Key technique of water disaster early-warning system Based on the I-D and Logistic regression analysis’(2013zzts239), this dissertation was supposed to discuss a series of calculate methods for area distribution and rainfall threshold. The main work and achievement of this dissertation is as follows:1)Based on the field investigation and information organisation of water disaster along railways, we make sure that primary disaster is the prevention objects. Through the analysis of statistical data, we prose new ideas, such ad the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, chain of triggering mechanism and disaster mode.2)Based on the chain of triggering mechanism, dangerous evaluation method combined with the vulnerability is proposed. Contraposeing the characteristics of water disaster, we establishe a new evaluation index system. we also optimize the Gray evaluation model by inproving its weighting methods and whitenization weight function. Given the expert experience, we successfully apply the division toJiaoliu railway.3)In consequence of the current practice’s poor effect, we propose a idea which is called railway’s detailed pre-warning system (forecasting and warning according to disaster types, calculation method to determine rainfall thresholds). Taking Jiaoliu railway as example, A calculation methods for rainfall threshold is proposed. The result has been tested in Jingguang railway, and result is credible.4)Railway emergency management idea lags, prevention measure is only choosed by the degree of water disaster’s control ranges. Based on Logistic regression analysis, we propose a probability prediction model, and divide the range into A, B, C, D zones. Then, we arrange more targeted measures for railway water disasters’prevention.