Prediction Of Ballastless Track Irregularities Of High-speed Railway

High regularity is the core and the key technique of high-speed track lines and the control conditions of design, construction and maintenance. Detailed statistics and forecast analysis of track inspection data on a high-speed railway were carried out according to the defect of the track inspection data guidance for high-speed railway track maintenance, by which the track geometry irregularity and its development trend can be real-time controlled. Furthermore, it will be beneficial to scientific guidance of high speed railway track line maintenance and improve the maintenance management level of high speed railway ballastless track. The main missions done in this paper are as follows:(1) Trace collected the ballastless track inspection data of a railway in China, and preprocessed the original data through getting rid of outliers, zero mean and correcting mileage. Results show that: preprocessing is essential before statistics and forecast analysis of the track inspection data.(2) Shortages in rail irregularity prediction model both domestic and overseas are summarized, based on which the idea, model and the prediction formula of comprehensive factor method have been detailed introduced, and the merits and demerits of the method are analyzed. Meanwhile, introduce the modified comprehensive factor method which inherits the main ideas and advantages of the comprehensive factor method, is simple and applicable. Therefore, modified comprehensive factor method is adopted to predict the track irregularity, and the track irregularity predictors TIP v1.0is programmed by FORTRAN language. Moreover, the process and functions of this software is introduced in this paper.(3) The ballastless track section of high-speed railway is basic evaluated based on the peak button score method and the law of TQI. The results show that the state of ballastless track irregularity changes slowly, the stability is well, which has the ability to keep track irregularity well.(4) The section of high-speed railway ballastless track irregularity in China are forecasted and verified in two cases by the prediction program TIP v1.0. The analysis results show that the predicted results are very close to the measured results. The improved method of comprehensive factor prediction and the prediction program TIP v1.0could predict the majority of track inspection index. The method and the prediction program TIP v1.0have the good feasibility, correctness and practicability, which is worthy of popularization and application.(5) Based on the idea of "preventive and maintenance", the application of track irregularity prediction results will point to the strategy planning, the according planning and monthly planning of the recommended maintenance schedule.