Forecasting Method And Its Support System For Abnormal Production Loss Of Minicar Rear Axle Key Process

The production of minicars rear axle covers different kinds of materials,equipments and closely linked processes, so the abnormal problems of key processeswould give rise to huge losses to the aspects such as the next process production, theproduct quality, and the customer satisfaction, and it would also affect the quality ofminicars, bring about hidden danger to people’s lives. It has become one of the coreissues for the minicar rear axle enterprises to solve to make effective prediction for theabnormal production events of key production processes. The characteristics of minicarsrear axle production process were analysed, and the forecasting method and its supportsystem for abnormal production loss of minicar rear axle key process were studied inthis paper.Firstly, the characteristics of the abnormal events in the minicars rear axle keyprocess were analysed and the abnormal events in the minicars rear axle key processwere classified; Then a evaluation system for abnormal production losses of minicarrear axle key processes was established by analyzing the factors which influenceabnormal production loss of the minicar rear axle key process, and an improved greyassociation analysis method was used to determine the index weight; On the basis of theabove, an abnormal production loss evaluation and early warning method of minicarsrear axle key processes was proposed based on an improved grey fuzzy evaluationmethod and the Radial Basis Function neural network.Secondly, The requirements of the abnormal production losses evaluation and earlywarning of minicar rear axle key processes were analysed, a suit of forecasting supportsystem for abnormal production losses of minicar rear axle key process was studied,which can provide accurate assessments and effective prediction of the abnormalproduction losses of key production processes to the minicars rear axle enterprises. Inaddition, the architecture, function structure and operation modes of the forecastingsupport system were set up.Finally, a suit of forecasting support system for abnormal production losses ofminicar rear axle key process was studied was designed and developed based on theabove research, and good results were obtained during the application of the system inXiaokang industrial parts rear axle workshop.