Analysis Of Prediction Of Wind Power In The Large Wind Farm

The motivity of wind power station comes from the wind,while the windhas the natural character of randomness , undulatory property anduncontrollability.All these bring the same character of the output of the windpower station.With the rapid development of our wind power industry,thewind power station are built in a large scale.When the installed capacity of thewind power station comes to a certain rate,the randomness and undulatoryproperty will cause a big surge to the power grid, which affect the normaloperation of the quality of power supply and the electric power systemseriously.Thinking over the grid rectifier,if we can forecast the power of the windfarm,the electrical dispatching department can make a prompt plan to adjustthe electric power generation according to change of the output of the windpower station in order to assure the co-ordination of supply and demand and thesafe and stable operation of the power grid.Thinking over the generation,thewind power forecasting can provide accordance to the wind farm’s participationin the power bidding.It can also help to arrange the crew to maintaining and examine under the condition of the low output in order to assure the rationaloperation.Presently,the research of the forecast in the filed of the wind poweris becoming more extensive and more thorough,which is of a big importance tothe advancing of the expansion of our wind power industry.This passage firstly gives a simple introduction of the development of theexternal wind power industry and a conclusion of the present condition of theforecast of the wind power.And on the basis of this,it provides the means forforecasting the wind power on account of the Colored Petri Net.The maincontent of this passage includes the following:1、On the basis of the analysis of the air speed and the related character ofthe wind power station,we established a forecasting model for the wind powerfounded on bettering the BP Neural Networks.Up to the forecasting model ofthe air speed,it attests the influence of the forecasting cycle difference and theextent of undulatory property of the air speed itself . Up to the forecastingmodel of the power,it achieves two different ways of the power forecasting andgives a detail analysis of the two forecasting result.2、It firstly provides the foresting way of the wind power on account of theCPN and carries out the forecasting model in the MATLAB Programming.Andit analyses the forecasting result of the BP model with a concrete example,proving the validity of the forecasting on account of the CPN.3、Aiming at the deficiency of the accuracy of the single factor windpower,it analyses the mutual relation among the multiple-factor that affects theoutput of the wind power station . On the above basis , we established aforecasting model on account of the multiple-factor,using the means of BPNeural Networks and the CPN , and gives a detailed analysis of the every forecasting result of each factor,carrying out a forecasting model for the bestfactor combination.4、On the basis of the above analysis of all forecasting model examples,it summarizes and compares the superiority and inferiority of every model,analyzing the concrete condition that each model can adjust to,and gives aprospect for the further forecasting of the wind power.