Spatial And Temporal Distribution Characteristics Of Flood Disaster Vulnerability In Shanghai

Flood is one of the major natural disasters of the coastal mega city, Shanghai. Studying the vulnerable distribution of time and space is helpful for government to deal with disasters and manage emergency. On the basis of the research, the government is able to apply specific improvements to vulnerable areas and develop related disaster contingency plans for vulnerable social groups.This paper from the concept of disaster vulnerability to proceed, refining the vulnerability factor through the analysis of the flood disaster characteristics in Shanghai since port opening 1843. Sorting out and analyzing disaster case, drawing on relevant literature, using improved HOP model establish evaluation system to assess the flood disaster vulnerability of Shanghai. Vulnerability evaluation system includes seven physical vulnerability index indicators and 12 social vulnerability index indicators.In order to be comparing, the vulnerability analysis at the provincial level was studied based on historical flood disasters in China. In addition, the disasters caused by the different period of the same strength were also studied to confirm the vulnerability time evolution characteristics of Shanghai. The main findings are obtained as following:(1) Since the opening of Shanghai flood disaster within storm-surge type and overflow type, occurring mainly in summer. The spatial distribution difference, urban and eastern or northern Shanghai regional flood disaster often happens, the western and southern regions relatively less.(2) The flood disaster occurrence has obvious increasing since the port opening of Shanghai. Disasters above middle class are also increasing, but it is more relaxed than overall disasters, and there is a certain periodicity. The last time the catastrophe occurred in 1949, the foreseeable catastrophe is less likely to happen in the future, but still need to prevent the occurrence of mega disasters.(3) The flood vulnerability of Shanghai is at the lowest level in the whole country. The flood vulnerability in Shanghai has decreased obviously in the past one hundred years.(4) Through the building of vulnerability assessment system, getting fragile spatial distribution characteristics. The social vulnerable for outer suburb district largest gradually to the center of the city the smallest circle pattern, which occurs with a history of more serious floods suburb of the greater harm. Physical vulnerability manifests as the center of the city, the largest gradually to the outer suburb district minimum, and social vulnerability in the circle structure, this and the occurrence of flood disasters in the central urban area of Shanghai the highest frequency consistent. The results of the vulnerability assessment and the actual situation to maintain a high consistency of the improved HOP model of this study has a certain scientific, and its conclusion is objective and reliable.