Research On The Fluctuating Cycles And Influential Factors Of A-share Market

As is known to all, the stock market as an important part of the national economy,is closely related to the country’s macroeconomic prosperity and development. To acertain extent, the developments of a country’s economic situation have a predictioneffect, known as the "barometer" of the national economy. The securities market canrestructure asset, revalue price, predict risk and so on, it is a precondition of the steadyeconomic growth.Based on this research background, this paper firstly describes A-share marketoverall trend by the simple analysis. Moreover using MA (moving average) and theresearch method of markov chain we make an analysis on the cycles of the stock market.Finally we discus the influential factors of the formation of China’s a-share market cyclein order to play the role of the securities market "barometer", avoiding the phenomenonof abnormal volatility of the stock market, to guide the healthy development of nationaleconomy.The results show that the a-share market swings does not accord with A standardnormal distribution but fat-tailed distribution, at the same time accompanied byfluctuations in accumulative effect namely volatility clustering and fluctuated clusterphenomenon.Moreover, paper analyzes the growth cycle of the stock market that reflect theexpansion and contraction of the stock market returns.The stock cycle is about eightpoint four months, including with the larger probability of3,4,5month expansion, Themarch in the phase of expansion in the number of times is the highest, reaching17times;In October it is more likely to stay in a recession phase with a frequency reaching16times. Therefore, investors can choose in March as into the timing of the stock market,at the same time, as far as possible out of the stock market before October.During the influential factors research by the Granger causality test,A share priceindex has an effect on CPI and the other way round. Rates under a5%significance level,is also not A Granger cause of stock price index. To some extent in our country, there isno significant impact on the stock market. That is partly because of the bad transmissionchannels. Therefore, it is necessary to further speed up the marketing of interest ratereform, interest rate policy on the stock market and macroeconomic regulation. At thesame time, through to the Shanghai composite index of impulse response and variance decomposition, in the cpi rise early, due to the lag and inertia force of a stock indexshows a tendency of rising, but along with the accumulation of time, the rise in the cpiplays the reverse the inhibitory effect of stock price index,. In the long run, inflationresults in the bear market phenomenon.