The Impulse Response Analysis On Credit Factors Of Bank

With the continuous development of financial market in our country, commercialBanks is the absolute core of the financial system, a special and important part ofnational economy. Bank credit supply will affect the national economy, and the nationaleconomy affect the bank credit. Now M2super hair, the economy continues to low,production enterprise financing difficulties, weak consumer spending, investmententhusiasm but less investment projects such as reality, analysis of commercial bankcredit are influenced by what macroeconomic factors, as well as the degree ofinteraction between various factors and duration has very important practicalsignificance.In this paper, macroscopic economic cycle, the consumer confidence in the market,the enterprise comprehensive operating conditions and the Angle of China’s foreigntrade situation four national bank loans do impulse response analysis, research ofcommercial bank credit is affected by the above factors influence the degree and thetimeliness. Collected data from January2010to November2013, according to the datavector error correction model is established, through the establishment of the modelobtained the macroeconomic cycle, the consumer confidence in the market, theenterprise comprehensive operating conditions as well as China’s foreign trade situationand national bank lending long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship and short-termfluctuation relationship. Secondly, by establishing the VECM and impulse responseanalysis, found that commercial bank.Resulting from the macro economic changes,consumers, business at home and abroad business enterprise four aspects of thecommercial bank credit policy Suggestions.This article also on the model of the indicators analysis compared with traditionalindicators used in economic analysis and explain the reason for using this index, as wellas related model of time series variables: a vector autoregressive model, vector errorcorrection model, compares and analyses the error correction model in this paper choosethe VECM advantages and potential problems.