| The research of this paper is the impact of RMB exchange rate on import and export trade in Northwest China. Considering the object of this research, it employ1993-2012five northwestern provinces annual import and export trade data, RMB real effective exchange rate, the Northwest China GDP, foreign direct investment and other annual data. Establish import and export demand model based on elasticity theory. Through the use of data analysis system Eviews7.0to test whether each variable is in line with ADF-test, following the adoption of co-integration test and Granger test, we find the relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and the import trade, export trade of Northwest China.Empirical analysis shows, first of all, RMB real effective exchange rate has a significant positive correlation with the five northwestern provinces of Chinese import trade. Secondly, there was a significant positive correlationg between RMB real effective exchange rate and export trade of northwest China. Finally, the impact on import and export trade of northwest China has the positive direction of the implementation of the western development strategy, but the effect is not significant. Such an outcome analysis of the reasons can be summarized as the following two, firstly, compared with the eastern coastal regions, External trade of Northwest China is still in the preliminary stages of development. Otherwise, because of the unique of Northwest exports, it is hard to completely replace by other commodities, and therefore have a certain competitive advantage in foreign markets. Secondly, since the implementation of the western development strategy in2000, each of the Provinces in Northwest pay more attention on foreign trade, build a platform for foreign exchange, organize Economic Forum with neighboring countries, introduction foreign investment. Finally, the paper summarizes the results by the empirical analysis, then put forward some corresponding policy recommendations. |
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