DSGE Model And Applied Research Of Technology Shocks&Monetary Policy&Financial Ecology

The Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) is based on RBC theory to analyze economic fluctuation in an early age, concentrating on the impact of technology shocks to economic fluctuation. As has been limited by the "price elasticity" and "perfect competition" two hypothesis, RBC theory believes that the actual variables are independent of monetary policy, and that social welfare has nothing to do with monetary policy, contrary to empirical evidence. Based on the absorption of methodology on DSGE of RBC theory, New Keynesian DSGE model adds the "price stickiness" and "monopolistic competition" two assumptions so that a reasonable demand of the currency is introduced. Added monetary factors, the model recognizes the impact of both technology shocks and monetary policy shocks, which draws the conclusion that currency is non-neutral.This paper constructs Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) based on RBC and New Keynesian Theory, containing both monetary policy shocks and technology shocks. Attaching monetary policy transmission and two exogenous random shocks, this paper analyzes nominal and actual flow process of economic system. Through the link from data to variables, we finally determine the form of DSGE. Combined with Chinese empirical data, this article estimates parameter in DSGE through Bayesian method:with the prior distribution of model parameters, we use of sampling method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to be optimize the model.Based on empirical study, this dissertation draws three meaningful conclusions:First, instead of the past policy model described by currency amounts, we build the central bank’s monetary policy model on interest rate rules, which better fits with the real economy of a country’s monetary policy.Second, based on theoretical framework and empirical test, we derive and validate the performance of monetary policy which is neutral under the RBC theory and non-neutral in the New Keynesian theory. Also, we confirm the impact of technology shocks under both theories.Third, the paper combines Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) with financial ecological environment, analyzing the model with empirical data of China. Compare with DSGE model eliminating financial ecological environment, we finally draw the conclusion of the impact between financial ecological environment and Chinese macroeconomic issues.