The Estimate Of The Basic Distribution Of Auto Parts Failure Rate And Warranty Cost

Nowadays,the market competition became more and more fierce.More and morecar manufacturers and retailers began to turn the attention to the after-sales service inorder to enhance the competitiveness.Warranty service is an important part of theautomobile after-sale service.It plays a vital role for manufacturers and retailers toestimate warranty costs reasonably.It makes great practical significance formanufacturers,retailers and consumers to research and forecast the warranty costs.The concept of warranty has gone into China around2005,and domesticresearches on warranty is gradually increasing.The classification of the warranty,thewarranty strategy and warranty costs all have related researches.But about thewarranty cost prediction,almost no scholar use the actual data to test the distributionof the failure rate of auto parts and model the data use the actual data.So the articlecan enrich the research in the field of warranty costs by do so.Failure data from an China automobile manufacturer have been analyzed in thispaper and a distribution to represent the failure data has been sought.Using the leastsquares regression the fitness of exponential distribution, normal, lognormal, extremevalue distribution and Weibull distribution was tested.It was found that the Weibulldistribution provide the best fitness,although the exponential distribution and thenormal distribution also provide a reasonable fit. In order to predict the effect of thedifferent model, the exponential distribution, normal distribution and Weibull modelswere constructed in the paper. And finally studies have shown that the Weibulldistribution provide the best fit.In addition, statistics show that there is still a part of the claims out of warranty,which also forms part of the warranty costs for the manufactures. However,thenumber of out of warranty claims was significantly reduced,then another model hasbeen developed to determine the number of claims during the post-warranty period.The results show that the cost model beyond the warranty period has shown good results.The paper has used the renewal process theory.As failed components have beenreplaced with new ones,the process has been modeled as a renewal.The estimate of the basic distribution of auto parts failure rate is the foundation ofthe model development.The calculation of warranty costs can help automobilemanufacturers to control the warranty cost,then improve the economic benefit.On theother hand,the study can provide data reference for manufactures and retailers whenthey make warranty strategies.At the same time,the research will provide somethinking and references for the managers in the same industry.