| 1950s onwards, some East Asian countries and regions has made remarkable achievements in the economy. Western scholars studied the factors behind these achievements and found that the demographic dividend played a huge role in promoting the economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced a rapid economic growth and surpassed Japan in2010for the first time to become the world’s second largest economy. Scholars have done a lot of research on the factors of Chinese economic growth, but few focus on the effect of changes in the population structure on Chinese economy. Demo graphically speaking, the population structure of China and East Asian countries and regions is very similar, the development trend is also very same, and then the economic miracle of East Asian countries will suggest lessons for economic development of China in the future and there will be certain significance to analyze the effect of the demographic dividend on Chinese economy.Since China has implemented a strict family planning policy, there are some unique characters of Chinese demographic transition, the demographic transition process is short and the effect is obvious. As China is being in the post-period of demographic dividend, the problems of population aging and labor prices rising emerging, some scholars even believe that China has get into the stage of "old before getting rich". Economic growth is also facing the restriction of resources, environment, and technological innovation and so on. How to get rid of these shackles and make the growth of the economy stable and sustainable is a major challenge facing our country in the future.This paper first reviews several important theories and models about economic growth and analyze the theoretical origins of these models and their shortcomings as a basis for the later introduction of the total population dependency ratio into the model. Then it analyzes the changes in the overall situation of China’s population and the features of demographic dividend, and compares the features of demographic structure to that of some East Asian countries. Then it analyzes the intrinsic mechanisms of how demographic dividend influence economic growth through the savings rate, public investment and human capital in the economy. Next, by adding human capital into Solow model, we derived the factors affecting economic growth, and then the relationship of demographic dividend and economic growth is created through total social dependency ratio and other relevant factors. Econometric test is used for inspecting them through cointegration model and concluded that there is long-term co-integration relationship between total social dependency ratio and economic growth and. Finally, after analyzing the main problems arising from post-period of population dividend, we give some policy recommendations.This paper uses an approach of combination of theoretical and empirical to analyze the relationship of population dividend and economic growth dividend and use modern econometric methods to carry out econometric tests. First innovation of this paper is that the use of modern econometric methods to reveal the relationship of demographic dividend and economic growth, because for non-stationary time series, the traditional measurement methods may appear spurious regression phenomenon. The second one is the examples selected are relatively new, such as the employment of university students is difficult, the continued fog and haze days in the North and Chinese236million migrant population.Of course, there are some weaknesses in this paper. First of all, since the data of total social dependency ratio before1978cannot be found, the sample size on is relatively small. In addition, the data of some years is gotten through derivation, not raw data, so test results might be influenced. Second, this paper only analyzes the effect of demographic dividend on economic growth, while it does not analyze how the economic growth influences the demographic dividend. |
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