Study On The Risk Evaluation Of Chinese Oil Enterprise’s Overseas Oil Exploration Project

With economic development, the demand for oil is growing, China is the secondlargest oil consumer after the United States. From1993, China’s domestic oil supplyhas unable to meet the needs of domestic economic development and social life, dueto our country needs to import large quantities of oil, China has become the country’sthat dependence on imported oil supplies heavily. Currently, China’s oil consumptionand imports are ranked in the forefront of countries. China’s dependence on foreignoil climbed for50%from1993to2011and national oil security is facing a huge risk.Because of Chinese oil companies "going out" relatively late, we were lacked ofexperience on risk assessment of overseas oil exploration projects. In recent years,with the turbulent world situation and the price and supply control from oil-producing countries, the risk of overseas oil exploration projects also increase.Chinese oil company’s overseas investment projects based on exploration investmentmostly, inaccurate risk assessment will bring huge losses. So, the risk assessment ofthe project has guiding significance to the development of the Chinese oilcompanies’s overseas exploration. Therefore, we need to make a scientific andrational risk assessment on the basis of identifing the risk generated from overseas oilexploration projects.Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign scholars research, this paperdescribes the theoretical risk assessment of the projects at home and abroad fromthree aspects, is the project risk index, weight determination and risk assessment.Based on the characteristics of overseas oil exploration projects and the developmentmodels, we made a detailed description and analysis for risk assessment of overseasoil exploration project, and introduce the risk evaluation method in overseas oilexploration projects that scholars often used, based on the above analysis, we canconclude that the shortage of exploration projects of overseas in risk assessment atthe present stage. We use causal analysis and experts survey methods to identify the risk factors of China’s oil companies’ overseas exploration projects, and construct acomprehensive evaluation method based on rough sets and fuzzy sets. Based on acomprehensive risk assessment model to assess the risk factors for the project, theresults indicate that in overseas oil exploration projects, external risks make agreatest impact on the entire project, including geological risk, political risk, andlegal risk is the most important factor. Highest risk of internal risk weights istechnical risk, followed is the organization to manage risk. According to the resultsof a comprehensive risk assessment, this paper proposed for risk prevention andcontrol strategies.