The Meta-Analysis On The Influence Of The Currency Fluctuations To Chinese Enterprises

The People’s Bank of China announced in July,2005that China will implement the managed floating exchange rate system that driven by market and with reference to a basket of currencies. Marking China’s exchange rate market began to enter a managed floating exchange rate regime period. Since then, Renminbi(RMB) increased in amplitude and appreciated continuously. Bring new impact and challenges to China’s enterprises and macroeconomic stability. With the deepening of China’s market economy, China’s economy combined more closely with the global economy. More Chinese enterprises go abroad, and participate in international economic and trade activities. The instability of RMB exchange rate is bound to exacerbate exchange rate risk of Chinese enterprises.Therefore, effectively evaluate the foreign exchange risk exposure of Chinese enterprises is particularly necessary for people to understand and avoid exchange rate risk. Existing studies mainly use the capital market approach or cash flow method to do empirical test with the exchange rate risk exposure of single enterprises, and summarize the test results, judge overall foreign exchange risk of China’s enterprises subjectively, but without further statistical test. The contribution of this paper is that we use Meta statistical test to combine and re-examine the empirical test results of exchange rate risk exposure of single enterprises, thus extremely improving objectivity and scientificalness of the test.Firstly, we utilize the popular Williamson model which considers the lagged effects to measure exchange rate risk exposure of China’s single enterprises, and then we can determine the direction of the exposure of each enterprise. According to the investigated business information, we divide enterprises into export-oriented enterprises and non-export-oriented enterprises. At last, we use Meta test to analysis the exchange rate risk exposure of export-oriented enterprises and non-export-oriented enterprises.The results show that there is a significant foreign exchange exposure in most enterprises in China; furthermore there is no significant correlation between export-oriented or import-oriented enterprises and foreign exchange exposure direction. On the surface, this conclusion is contrary to the traditional economic theory, but with further analysis we can find that, for China’s export-oriented enterprises in the sample, there are a lot usage of foreign exchange funds in the actual operating, so it is affected by the exchange-rate risk in both directions of export and import at the same time. This is the fundamental reason why the result is contrary to the traditional economic theory.