Research On The Effect Of TPP On Asia-Pacific Economic Pattern

Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is developed from Trans-Pacific Strategic Partnership Agreement which is signed by Chile,New Zealand,Singapore and Brunei in2005.In2009,the United States government announced that America will join in TPP and will build up TPP to a high standard Free Trade Agreement which contains all the APEC members.So TPP got rapid expansion and the large attention from the other countries in the world.And now TPP has10members and two negotiating nations,Japan and Canada.Its members streched across the whole Asia-Pacific regions.Obviously,TPP is the key step of America "re-entry the Asia-Pacific " and aims to restrain the power of China in this region.The economy of Asia-Pacific region developed rapidly in the past20years with the rise of China,four Asian Tigers and emerging economies.Now the Asia-Pacific economy has deep influence on the global economy.The Asia-Pacific pattern reflects the competition between America and China in one hand and a large amount of region economic organizations.The writer describes the competition of the two large countries from some major aspects,GDP,foreign trade.In the development of region economic organization,some powerful organizations like APEC,10+1,10+3,10+6,North American Free Trade,China-Japan-Korea Free Trade are introduced.TPP is one of the most powerful region economic organizations in Asia-Pacific,and its progress impact the Asia-Pacific economic pattern especially with the join of Japan.In quantitative analysis,Global Trade Analysis Program is used to analyse the specific impact of TPP on the two countries as China and America and other related countries in the GDP growth,foreign trade,welfare and term of trade.Two scenes are stimulated:(1)only America joins in the TPP;(2)both America and Japan join in the TPP.The results show that under the two scenes,all the TPP members get economic benefits,while the non-TPP members get economic loss.For our country,in the scene(2), China will get larger loss.Our GDP will decrease0.27%,and our traditonal comparative advantage industries like textile,agriculture will face big shocks.The impact on the other region economic organizations of Asia-Pacific will be positive,negative and two-sided to the different organizations.If Japan succeeds to join in the TPP,TPP will generate great influence on Asia-Pacific pattern.Therefore,our country should make many relevant work in advance, to face the challenge of TPP actively.