Anhui Foreign Trade Commodity Structure And Industrial Structure Empirical Analysis

In the international context, foreign trade commodity structure optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has a great role in promoting a country or region’s sustained economic growth, the coordinated development of both and the mutual adaption is the important safeguard of healthy and stable development. Since reform and opening, as China’s economic ties with other countries continue closely, the domestic economic environment has undergone great changes, based on these changes our country continue to adjust the foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure and obtained significant results, in recent years, China’s foreign trade developed continuously and industrial structure has also been optimized, while the foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure coordinated to speed economic development. Anhui province encountered some bottleneck in how to ply the positive role between foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure, so taking reasonable and effective measures to play the mutually reinforcing role of foreign trade commodity structure optimization and industrial structure upgrading can not only solve problems like the unreasonable Anhui foreign trade goods structure and imperfect industrial structure and other issues,but also can promote the overall improvement of the economy in Anhui province.In this paper, we study the relationship between Anhui foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure by using a summary of the relevant theoretical and empirical analysis, the specific research process is as following:firstly, summarize domestic and foreign scholars’ theory for foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure, at the same time analyze the relationship between foreign trade commodity structure and industrial on the basis of the theory; secondly, by analyzing the theoretical explanations between the foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure, we sum up the interaction between the two mechanisms; again to calculate the index and the relevant proportion of Hoffman, we count the relevant statistics in the Anhui Statistical Yearbook1999-2011, and analyze the historical development of the foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure through fluctuations of the indicators in this13-year analysis; in the final empirical process, we carry on ADF test, cointegration, error correction model and Granger casuality on the related data of foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure by using the Eviews6.0soft ware, based on VAR model analysis we do a pulse test, variance decomposition analysis, simultaneously we carry out correlation analysis and finally based on corresponding theoretical explanations and empirical analysis,we put forward some constructive policy recommendations which fit the realities of economic development in Anhui province and contribute to the positively mutual relationship of foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure.Through empirical analysis results, Anhui’s industrial structure changes has no casual relationship with the changes in the structure of imports, while changes in the structure of exports is not the reason for the changes of industrial structure, but changes in the industrial structure is the reason for the changes in the structure of exports. It can be concluded that the speed of the development of Anhui foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure is not the same, meanwhile it didn’t reach the goal of the mutual contribution of foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure, therefore, we need to develop appropriate policies and to take effective measures, through the adjustment for both,they can be more responsive to each other’s development and thus they can play a mutually reinforcing effect.