Research On The Energy Development Strategy Of Liaoning Based On Energy Saving

Energy is an important material foundation for the development of economic and social, all aspects of production and life are inseparable from energy. Liaoning Province, as a major energy consumer province, is critical to complete energy saving work. At present, foreign scholars for the study of the relationship between the multiple perspectives of energy consumption, energy intensity and economic development is quite rich. Domestic scholars also have undertaken extensive researches about the relationship between the provinces of energy consumption and the level of economic development, but few quantitative analysis articles for the Liaoning energy consumption, literatures to predict the future is less.Firstly, the large number of domestic and foreign literatures’ overview provide a theoretical basis for the writing of this article. Followed this paper defines related concepts, and analyzes the situation of Liaoning energy consumption, pointing out that many problems exist in the field of Liaoning energy consumption, and therefore the implementation of the energy development strategy is necessary. Then we considers the population, economic development, energy structure, industrial structure, car ownership and many other factors to regression analysis with consideration of the availability of data, and have quantitative analysis results of the factors affecting energy consumption in Liaoning. Regression process take partial least squares method that is apply in serious multi-co linearity and the number of samples is less than the number of variables, so it can better guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the calculations. Then taking advantage of the time series ARIMA model and Gray prediction model to predict various influencing factors during the "12th Five-Year", and then based on energy consumption data on regression model and found that the next few years, Liaoning Province, the energy consumption is still higher speed growth, and to maintain the high level of consumption. ARIMA is a short-term forecasting model that has a higher predicted accuracy, Gray model forecast future changes in the system’s internal data by finding the variation of the waiting forecast system, it is better to the data series that changes over time in ascending or descending. Finally, this paper analyzes the Liaoning’s energy environment, working out strategy that can play to the strengths, grasp the opportunity, reduce the weakness and evasive the threat as much as possible based on the SWOT strategic models. SWOT analysis considers internal and external environment comprehensive, it can analyze the problem objectively and accurately.