The Research On Risk-Forecast Of Micro Loan Companies

The micro loan company as an important ingredient of the micro-finance system, plays an essential role in China’s economic operation. Not only could it enrich the "Agriculture, Ruralareas and Peasantry" financial products and services, promoting the construction of new countryside, but also provide strong financial support for the development of small and micro enterprises in China, making up blanks of financial service of commercial banks. However, due to the micro loan company in China is still at the exploratory stage, laws and regulations, market mechanisms, regulatory body is not perfect, there are many risks lie in the process of operation of the micro loan company, if it is not controlled in time, not only will it be the bottleneck, hampering the further development of micro loan company but have a negative impact on economy’s healthy operation of China. It is very necessary to establish a scientific system of the risk early warning system of the micro loan company.The study of the risk early warning system of the micro loan company, screening reasonable warning indicators through scientific methods, and then carrying on the empirical analysis of the risk early warning model, ultimately establishing the risk early warning system cater for the development and it’s reality of the micro loan company. This article is based on the status quo of the micro loan company in China, the analytic hierarchy process on the basis of its analysis of the risk profile, efficacy coefficient of the micro loan companies risk early warning model, then taking an micro loan company as an empirical case, to verify the effectiveness of early warning model, the results show that the predicted results agree with the situation of the sample micro credit company, so that the risk early warning model of the micro loan company has some practical value.