The Study On The Factors Affecting The Fluctuation Of China Real Estate Prices Under New Situation

1998is the year decide the future development direction of China’s real estate."Notice of the State Council on further deepening the reform of the urban housingsystem to speed up housing construction"issued in July1998clearly stop housingdistribution in kind, realize the goal of the Housing allocation monetizationprogressively, this prompted the urban housing system reform really touch the coreand form a market economy based mainly,government guidance supplementedhousing market property right and trading mechanism which is conducive to explore afair, reasonable and viable real estate sustainable development road.From1998to2003, although there has been a certain degree of volatility in real estateprices, but relatively stable overall.,the price fluctuations of the phase can not reflectthe whole picture since the reform of China’s real estate price fluctuations. Since2003,rising price trend gradually extended to large, medium and small cities, birth aproperty bubble,.Price fluctuations and its trend became the focus of government,business, the public and the media.There are many reasons affect the price fluctuations. I believe that, in the short term,for example, the2006stock market "bull market", a more relaxed monetary policy, aswell as market information asymmetry caused by speculation are major externalincentives. However, from a longer period to see, the Internal factor is30years ofrapid economic development, consumers are able and willing to improve their livingconditions, so to invest in real estate. However, the economic operation, especiallysome of the problems in the running of the real estate market, such as market demandgradually increase, local governments and real estate developers promote rapid risein real estate prices, market legal environment is imperfect, generally pricesexpected,increasing gap between poor and rich,and so, gradually increase theuncertainties of economic fluctuations. thus forcing the government to continue toincrease the intensity of regulation of the real estate market and price fluctuations.Since2004, especially after2008, the central government’s determination to suppressthe high prices increasingly enhanced, the intensive control measures introducted,These measures played a certain role to curb housing prices unreasonable prices andreduce price volatilityAdmittedly, the real estate market-oriented reforms in China started late shorter,in theinspection interval, the real estate price fluctuations mainly show the increasing prices and the gradual stabilization of the characteristics,the"wave" has not been fullydemonstrated. However, I believe that the analytical methods used by the paper andthe conclusion drawn is undoubtedly a general sense.Paper focus the research of China’s real estate market price formation and volatilityfactors from the theoretical and empirical two dimensions. First, the introduction ofdomestic and foreign research results and related real estate-related concepts, use alarge number of economic theory to analyze the formation mechanism of thefluctuations in real estate prices in China. Secondly, analyze the impact of variousfactors on the price fluctuations one by one from the perspective of the economic,social, and policy control. Again, from an empirical point of view, adopt multipleregression,use sftware eviews6.0to regress the quantized various factors, the keyfactors are: economic development, the price level, the price of land, money supply,and international financial crisis, discuss the impact of these factors on the pricefluctuations in detail based on the empirical results,adopt gray prediction method topredict future prices. Finally, the combination of the empirical results,from the viewof our national conditions, provide the reference value policy recommendations forgovernment, business and buyers in order to promote the health of China’s real estateindustry, sustainable development.