| Total social financing to the real economy refers to the total funds that the real economy obtaines from the financial system within a period of time (monthly, quarterly or annually), and it is a major innovation of the theory and practice of monetary policy, which can fully reflect the relationship between finance and the economy, and effectively monitor the macroeconomic situation.Firstly, based on its concrete connotation, we specifically address the indicator’s defined framework, statistical principles, structural characteristics and seasonal fluctuations. Then, we analyze the relationship between the social financing and the real economy, and especially research its deviation. The conclusion is that the deviation between finance and the real economy has much to do with double counting, decreased demand-pull effect and the decline in corporate profitability. Secondly, we use empirical analysis to research the dynamic relationship between the social financing and the major macroeconomic indicators such as GDP、CPI. Detailed empirical process involves vector autoregression model (VAR), Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition methods. The conclusion is that, compared with the new RMB loans and money supply, the social financing relates more significantly with economic growth and currency stability. But the new financing can not effectively regulate the speed and the scale of economic growth, and so does the price changes path.Above all, due to the lack of controllability and testability, we can not regard the social finance as the the intermediate target of monetary policy, but than regard it as an auxiliary indicators for monitoring and post-judgment. In order to improve the feasibility of such new intermediate target, we suggeste to further improve the index system and the statistical caliber of total social financing, integrated use of monetary policy toolbox and accelerate the pace of financial reform. |
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