The A Stock Price Gap Study On The Game Theory

This paper first has carried on the system theory research to gap, the gap can be divided into equity gap, random gap, information gap, psychological gap, gap value and manipulation of the gap in six types, and defines the relevant concepts, expounds the mechanism and its related movement, its technical characteristics, gap cover, price forecast and investment value are analyzed.(1) the equity gap based on MM theory, equilibrium theory, such as judgment, produced in relatively static movement, there is no gap cover, do not have the price prediction, no investment value.(2) random gap is about price in the efficient market theory developed from random walk and has the characteristics of randomly generated random covering, so no price forecast function, but as a result of random movement on the statistical significance of the mean for "zero", so average random gap is also for "zero", using the characteristic, has the value of speculation in the futures markets, but the need to prevent the occurrence of "black swan" events.(3) the information gap is produced by the movement in the strong efficient market and with the end of the information movement, the gap will also go to cover, but when covering effectiveness according to the market and different, so there is no price prediction function. As a result of the limitation of transaction cost and transaction system, the information gap stoppage time back investment value is only used in the futures market, and has investment value in the stock market is not necessarily.(4) the psychological gap is the result of the formation of the psychological group of psychological movement, its gap with the inverse kinematics of group psychological covering, have price forecast function, also has the investment value.(5) the value gap is generated by the value movement, to cover the gap is not necessary, and if such breach is back into stoppage time, will be a strong resistance level rise (gap) or support falling (gap), to form again with the gap in the same direction of price movement. And when the value orientation and macro trend of economic cycle in the opposite direction, the resistance or support will abate, forming direction as not.(6) manipulation gap due to operator’s manipulation of prices, which the induced openings will be covering, and other manipulation of the gap to fill, so open mouth and pull litre lure gap has price forecast function, and other manipulation of such breach. Theoretically open mouth and pull litre lure gap has investment value, but because of the manipulator behavior is unpredictable, so the investment value. Due to gap to cover all kinds of gap, therefore, in the market to "lack of will fill" is not correct. This thesis also established the identification method is easy to confuse the gap between.Secondly, the paper analyzes the government in the stock market from the Angle of game with both sides such as investors, operators and retail game participants pay a circumstance and the optimal strategy, the investment mode of institutional investors to maximize pay is stock price manipulation, individual investors can use mental decline gap, rise in value gap and information gap manipulation function to invest, to be paid the largest investment returns.Third, psychological gap and manipulation of the gap and gap value empirical analysis shows that the three kinds of gap investment to realize the full benefits, which in the case of investment time difference, manipulate the gap (empty or lure lift gap) the average rate of return on investment with a day on average than psychological gap (fall) investment. Verify the psychological gap, gap value price prediction and the necessity of investment value, and confirmed the manipulation of the high probability of positive earnings gap investment results, reveals the "winners" speculators chase is perfectly rational behavior, and long-term investors should be based on information gap for value investment.Finally, according to the gap theory and empirical analysis, investors should improve their professional ability to act, according to the information provided by the gap, corresponding improvement trend investment, ox investment law, value investing, to participate in other markets such as futures, commodities investment to seize more opportunities for investment, improve investment returns. Policymakers should formulate policies, and promote the commodity market, futures market, the stock market, capital market connected with organic combination, promote the development of index futures investment funds. Regulators should according to the information gap to crack down on market manipulation,so as to promote the operation of the market, protect the interests of the broad masses of investors.Innovation of this paper lies in:One is an innovation in the stock price gap into equity gap, random gap, information gap, psychological gap, gap value and manipulation of the gap,forming the "gap theory" of the system.Two is put forward through the gap price prediction signal, improving general price the type of game analysis, the psychological gap gap is investment profit and value existence necessity, makes the prediction of the gap of price manipulation function existence necessity, to improve the return on investment is probable, by probability, thus forming a system of "gap" investment methods, namely gap reversal after buying the decline of the psychological, to sell when gap closed; Rise in value gap and manipulation (empty, pull to rise) lure gap to buy, sell the KD line reversal.Three is the system demonstrates the market "for lack of will" is not correct.