| Hong Kong in China is one of financial centers in the world, which has implied the linked exchange rate system for thirty years. Since the implementation of the linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong monetary authority in order to adapt to the change of the global economic situation and continue to implement many of the currency reform measures to make its content gradually improve, the linked exchange rate system to operate more efficiently, to resist external shocks, has weathered a series of wind and rain in the30years with the test. However,30years later, Hong Kong, both inside and outside environment compared with the system at the beginning of the implementation, great changes have taken place, especially Hong Kong and the mainland’s economic and trade and personnel exchanges increasingly close, the degree of economic integration is more and more deep, the dependence of the mainland is becoming more and more strong, compactness of dual economy, interactivity is more than the economic ties with the United States. Therefore, how to examine and optimization of Hong Kong’s exchange rate system, not only for its economic stability and prosperity plays a key role, but also for future policy formulation and implementation is of great significance. At the same time, Hong Kong is the bridgehead of China’s economic internationalization, the improvement of its exchange rate system is closely related to the interests of the mainland, for RMB regionalization and internationalization development strategy of the implementation of the future also have a profound influence.Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system is a product of history, is played a very large effect and market tested stage of exchange rate system innovation. There is no denying the fact that the implementation of the peg to ensure Hong Kong’s economic and social stability made an important contribution, but in the face of internal and external economic and financial development in Hong Kong continuously put forward new problems need to be done on the concrete measures and technical level continuously improve and perfect, enhance the adaptability and flexibility, make it become a stable currency, stabilize the financial system of the core and foundation. So, this paper reviews the development of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system since the middle of the19th century history, this paper introduces the connotation of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system and operation, on the basis of analysis of the Hong Kong the suitability of the linked exchange rate system, in-depth study on the rationality of the Hong Kong dollar peg China Yuan, but given the current immediately tied the two conditions are not mature, now need to continue to promote trade between the two exchanges and economic development, efforts to build a good macro economic environment of Hong Kong dollar pegged to China Yuan. Qualitative analysis is based on the theory of Hong Kong shall the suitability of the linked exchange rate system, and by using relevant data, in-depth analysis of the rationality, the Hong Kong dollar peg the Hong Kong dollar peg China Yuan inhibitors and should strive to build a good macro economic environment of Hong Kong dollar pegged to China Yuan. At the same time, a measurement method and the rigorous empirical quantitative analysis. By establishing a VAR model using Johansen co integration test method on the co integration test, which showed that Hong Kong and the mainland of the output level there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, both economic cycle have the common trend in the long term; With VAR model and impulse response function method, an empirical analysis of Hong Kong and the mainland each CPI growth rate change on the influence of its GDP, in order to observe whether the dynamic impact effect of symmetry. Also combined with intuitive comparison analysis, this paper first compares the Hong Kong and the United States, mainland China’s economic growth correlation coefficient, correlation coefficient tend to decline with the United States, Hong Kong and mainland China at a higher level of correlation coefficient, comparative analysis shows that the degree of Hong Kong’s economic ties with the United States in general is on the decline, increasingly close economic ties with the mainland in degree. Then, contrast between Hong Kong and the United States, mainland China’s consumer price index growth rate change situation, analysis that the influence of the rising prices on the mainland to Hong Kong price fluctuation is bigger and bigger. In this paper, the Hong Kong dollar pegged to China Yuan has the rationality, and combining with the characteristics of Hong Kong, both inside and outside environment and its change, by using various analysis methods to demonstrate, finally proposed should create economic environment suitable to peg China Yuan. Use comprehensible language to introduce the development history of Hong Kong currency system, the content of the linked exchange rate system and the operation, do not obscure, and for the following in-depth analysis of the Hong Kong dollar should be pegged to China Yuan. At the same time, combining with the Hong Kong economy, the external environment and internal trade with the mainland exchanges such as analyzing the actual situation of Hong Kong dollar should be pegged to China Yuan, rather than simply peg’own better judgment. The Hong Kong economic and trade ties with China, the United States were analyzed, such as make the argument more convincing. In this paper, combining the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, theoretical analysis has the dialectical logic, and collects the relevant data for clear digital evidence; Make full use of the multivariate analysis software in the empirical analysis, make the research more scientific and accurate. Make no pure text narrative as a whole in order to force the pale feeling, nor the simple empirical analysis of complex refractory trapped, and a variety of analysis method combined with the use, will further demonstrate Hong Kong dollar should be pegged to China Yuan this topic. On confirming the reasonableness of Hong Kong dollar should be pegged to China Yuan, at the same time also pay much attention to the dialectic thinking methods in this paper, the Hong Kong dollar peg China Yuan remains a inhibitors, conform to the principle of seeking truth from facts, and put forward should strive to build an appropriate macroeconomic environment of Hong Kong Dollar pegged to China Yuan. |
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