Members Churn Analysis And Alert Solution Study

With the rapid development of the China national economy in recent years, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the national economy in national economy indicators is always in the leading position. Prices are no longer the only indicators for consumers. They prefer to have high quality product and well-known brand, it becomes a great opportunities for Watsons China. At the same time the development of urbanization and the development of western regions also give Watsons China an infinite space for development. But as more and more similar types of chain retail company to enter China, the competition of this industry is very fierce.2009Watsons China launched its new membership program, the number of recruitments increased dramatically. Because of this new membership program, Watsons China becomes the leading position of CRM marketing. How the Watsons China can take advantage of this leading position, and how to avoid the customer churn, it becomes the most important and can help Watsons China win the future competition and keep the lead position.In this paper, starting from the fundamental of the CRM marketing, use Watsons China as sample, we analyzed the status of current recruitment and membership management program; and also from various dimensions briefly described churn members; after that a model is constructed by Bayesian Belief Networks to identify the behaviors of members with a propensity to churn, and the result of modeling is been applied into member churn alert system, the result showed us it helped Watsons china decreased the member churn rate.The analysis and modeling used in this paper not only can help Watsons China to better manage the customer churn, but also can help other companies or even other industries with CRM program in place.