Input And Output Factors’ Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis Of Grain Production In Hebei Province

Hebei is the major grain-producing areas in China, and the grain output fluctuationsdirectly affect food security and the sustainable development of agriculture. Since reformand opening, with the rapid development of agricultural production grain output has beengrowing steadily in Hebei, but influenced by traditional mode of production, there is still agap compared with other advanced provinces. Environment pollution, scarcity of waterresources and low level of technology has become constrains of food security andeconomic development, so how to improve the net income of grain crops and achieve thesustainable development of agriculture in Hebei province is an urgent need.In this study, we identified the outout indicators and input factors of grain crops inHebei province based on the hebei economic statistics yearbook from1990to2011, anddiscussed the temporal and spatial variation of them, then established the input-outputmodel using SPSS17.0to discussed the factors effecting the output of grain crops. Finally,we put forward some measures to enhance the sustainable development of agricultureusing SWOT analysis. The main outcomes of this paper are as follows:1) The total grain production in Hebei province has an gradual increasing trend inrecent22years although there have been a fluctuation period between1990and2003,however in the input factors, sown area of grain, agricultural labor present downwardtrend and consumption of chemical fertilize, effective irrigated areas, the total power ofagricultural machinery, electricity consumed in rural area present rising trend.2) The most annual grain production (1990-2011) is Baoding, while the lowest isQinhuangdao and the annual grain production declined from southeast to northwest inspace. All the inputs, Baoding, Shijiazhuang are high and Chende, Qinhuangdao are low.Meanwhile, the most annual grain production in138counties is Dingzhou while thelowest is Chongli, and the annual grain production declined from central and southern tonorthwest edge in space.3) Among the effective factors of chemical fertilizers consumption, sown area of graincrops, effective irrigated areas and agriculture mechanization, the chemical fertilizersconsumption has the greatest influence on the grain production.