Effect Of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate On China’s Export Structure

Since the opening and reform policy was put into effect, China’s opening to the outside world has kept increasing. Foreign exchange rate, one of the most important influencing factors of trade development, also enjoys more concerns from increasing scholars. After China joined in the WTO, its economy has been bound up with that of the whole world. Foreign exchange rate, an important economic leverage, gradually unfolds its influence on the export structure. The research objective of this paper is to estimate the influence of the real exchange rate of RMB on the export structure of China, so as to find some suggestions and counter measures from the status quo of RMB appreciation.Based on established theory researches, this thesis analyzes the different exchange rate regimes since the opening and reform and looks at the influences of exchange rate on China’s export structure in two perspectives:The first is the export commodity structure. The Impact on export commodity structure is divided into two aspects:one, based on the SITC classification, analyzes the trade development, finding that at different stages, as the real effective exchange rate appreciation and depreciation of the foreign trade, it presents different characteristics. Also, the empirical analysis is adopted to analyze the accessible data, proving the influences of the real effective exchange rate on ten different industries. Meanwhile, Industrial products, based on the SITC classification, are divided into labor-intensive and capital intensive. A picture is drew to analyze the elements of the different densities of exports account for the changes since1995in China and their respective share of total export in cointegration analysis, showing the exchange rate’s influence on the different densities of export commodities.The second is the angle of export region structure analysis. According to the export data from28provinces in our country, this paper analyzes the changes of proportion of the provincial export in the national export. Panel cointegration analysis is applied through the analysis of such variables and explanatory variables as their respective proportion of exports, the provincial gross domestic product (GDP) and the real effective exchange rate so on and so forth. With the method of empirical measurement, it concludes quantitatively the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the export region structure.Finally, this paper analyzes the influences of RMB appreciation in the recent years. On the basis of the experimental analysis aforementioned, it offers some suggestions and perspectives on the exchange rate reform of China, including1) implementing the policies step by step, slowly but surely, so as to avoid the unfavorable results caused by exchange rate fluctuations;2) Government should encourage the export industry to improve their competitive capability, hand in hand with corresponding policy support;3) Exchange rate system reform should be made on the basis of actual data, and the policy should be made on the premise of comprehensive analysis, thereby reducing the ambiguity of policy.