The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility On China’s Export

As the collapse of the Bretton Wood System in1973, international monetary systemreturned to the era of floating exchange rate. The relationship between exchange ratevolatility and trade volume had attracted the eyes of several researchers. To be differentfrom previous study, this issue is aimed to explore the uncertain relationship betweenexchange rate volatility and trade volume, is not the approach of elastic analysis in thetraditional international trade theory. At the same time, different perspectives on this issuewould become the chips of supporters of the different exchange rate system when theydebate with each other. Due to the differences between different countries and thedevelopment of empirical methodologies, although forty years has passed, there is nosatisfied answer to this issue in the academic circle.This thesis uses the data during2000m01to2011m12as a sample, classifies the SITCcategory export goods into resource intensive goods, labor intensive goods, and capitalintensive goods, selects the MASD (12) model as the proxy variable of RMB real effectiveexchange rate, and takes the ARDL model to re-estimate the relationship between thevolatility of RMB real effective exchange rate and the export of that three kinds of product.The empirical evidence demonstrates that: there is no co-integration relationshipbetween the export of capital intensive goods, foreign income, RMB real effectiveexchange rate and its volatility;in the long run, the volatility of RMB real effectiveexchange rate has no significant impact on the export of resource product, but it has weakpositive effect on the export of labor product; in the short run, both the export of resourceproduct and labor product are not sensitive to the volatility of RMB real effective exchangerate; moreover, no matter which product is taken into consideration, the RMB exchangerate reform does not change the impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on theexport.