Research On The Effects Of International Oil Price Fluctuations On Chinese Economic Sectors

In recent years, the price of international crude oil fluctuates severely. Only the year2008alone, the price of crude oil rose from100dollars/barrel by the end of2007to150dollars/barreland fell back to40dollars/barrel at the end of the same year, this did some influence on theworld’s economy and so did China’s economy. Our country is in a crucial period of rapiddevelopment of industrialization and urbanization, so the desire for raw materials like crude areenormous. Because of the resource endowments and the fast growing demands for crude, China’scrude oil supply gap is expanding, and the phenomenon of relying on crude import is increasingever since it break the cordon of50%in2009. The high reliance on crude import means the highreliance on the international crude market, and this will lead to higher influence from theinternational crude market. In such situations, the questions of how the price of international crudeoil conducts along our national economy and what kind of effect of the fluctuation of the crudeprice would bring to our national economy are scientific issues worthy of attention andinvestigation.Based on the background of the high reliance on import crude, this paper investigates theinfluence of fluctuation of the price of the international crude oil on our national economy. In thispaper, a non-competitive input-output method is used to clarify import crude oil from domesticcrude oil and analyzes to what degree the national economy departments are relying on the importcrude. The primary energy production departments such as coal mining and washing industry arenot much relying on import crude; while secondary energy production departments such as allkinds of non-energy extractive industry, metal smelting, metal rolling industry and the chemicalindustry shows high reliance on the import crude, further more this reliance conducts to lightindustry and service business due to the relations of production. Meanwhile we analyze therelationship of our nation’s industry using the non-competitive input-output method as well as thenon-competitive input-output price model to explore the conduction mechanism of internationalcrude oil in our nation’s economy departments, also we have drawn the main pathway figure.Finally, in this paper we build up the2007national macro social accounting matrix as well aseight departments decomposition social accounting matrix, then we further build up the CGEmodel of eight departments’ international crude oil fluctuation’s influence on our economy, also we set different crude price rise and for the phenomenon of increasing varias charge in resourceindustry we carry out empirical analysis obtaining some policy recommendation.