| For insurance companies, the scientific and reasonable extraction of the insuranceliability reserves is of great significance to the protection of adequate solvency andstable development of the company. On the one hand, the reserve evaluation accuracyis an important aspect of assessment of insurance companies’ profits, and is also thefoundation of company management to scientific decision-making. On the other hand,the adequacy of provisioning the solvency of insurance company and risk conditionshave a significant impact. According to the happening of insurance accident andthe claim progress of diferent pattern, liability reserve is divided into not incurredreserves and the outstanding claims reserve, the estimation of not incurred reservesis relatively straightforward, but the estimation of the outstanding claims reserve,whether in theory or from the method, there are a lot of difculties. Because usuallyin a specific years claim, claim often can’t processed in the same year, especially forliability insurance that usually have a long legal process, its harm and cause of claimsusually appears within a few years later, these conditions can cause claim delay andreport delay.In non-life insurance reserves valuation practice, the primary method which in-surance companies used is deterministic models of the chain ladde and B-F method,these models are based on aggregate data, and usually produce inaccurate predictionsof the reserve because aggregated data usually failed to use all the information of theindividual claims. How to understand the historical observation data trends is thepremise of actuarial mathematics assessment of liability reserves. In fact, the estima-tion of liability reserves of which we apply actuarial method is to predict the futurereparations situation according to the past experience. Therefore the key point is howto exploit past data efectively and find the characteristics and trends of reparation model which it implied.We analysis the outstanding claims reserve from two aspects: the umber of claimamount and the compensation of claims, and set up a model on the individual claimloss, by increasing the flow of claim report number triangle. Through this model IBNRand RBNS claims can be separate estimated, and provides a new efective method forreserve evaluation. |
