Forecasting The Shandong Province Foreign Trade And Fcological Environment Early Warning Mechanism

With the continuous development of global economic integration and trade liberalization,foreign trade not only improve the people’s living standard,but also increasingly become a strong driving force to promote the rapid economic development of a country.Now China is in an important period of rapid economic development and economic restructuring.With expanding domestic demand, China pays greater emphasis on the developing foreign trade for various regions, making it a new fulcrum for China’s economic development and transition.Foreign trade’s contribution to China’s economic development has become increasingly prominent. Since openness of the deepening and the constant expansion of trade,it has greatly promoted the economic development of Shandong province.In2011,Shandong GDP has reached4.5trillion yuan, reaching the highest level in history.Basing on average exchange rate6.46,approximately33.61%of import and export trade volume accounted for the proportion of GDP.This shows that the rapid development of the province’s economy largely depends on the degree of development of foreign trade.Although our province’s foreign trade has developed rapidly in recent years, it mainly relies on the extensive mode of development, irrational industrial structure of export, the slow development of the high-tech industry, the low level of international competitiveness, and destructive of the ecological environment, these phenomenons are the main factors which restrict the sustainable development of the foreign trade as well as economy. Ac cording to statistics, in the structure of export commodities, the proportion of primary products up to16.8%in2005, comparing with the developed countries,the proportion is still larger.The import and export of mechanical and electrical products as well as products with high-tech products, the proportion of exports in the value of its foreign trade is still smaller.In2010,the share of export of high-tech products in Shandong accounted for gross export only14.71%.Because of imperfect environmental protection laws, weak corporate awareness of environmental protection and the lack of related environmental standards constraint in the development of the province’s foreign trade,the development of foreign trade in recent years had made serious damage to the ecological environment of Shandong Province.At the end of2012to early2013, the wide range of fog and haze have shown that Shandong Province’s air quality is in sharp decline.Based on this, it is necessary to establish the ecological environment early warning system for the development of foreign trade in Shandong Province.In this paper, foreign trade and the ecological state of the environment have been analysis in detail.This paper establishes Shandong provincial foreign trade and ecological environment early warning indicator system,sets the warning range scientifically and rationally, determines the weight of specific indicators through the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the paper uses the extension element model to built Shandong province foreign trade and ecological environment security warning matter-element matrix which will be evaluated,and then make empirical analysis.Combining empirical results with lights warning signal system,the paper analysis the Shandong province’s foreign trade that makes the impact on ecological environment and future trade.,then makes forecast.Finally send warning signal to the government and the relevant departments of the results in a timely manner.The empirical analysis results show that,in first level indicators, pressure indicator of ecological environment is in the giant police state, environmental protection and governance indicator is in the heavy police status, socio-economic indicator is in the middle state pressure. This shows that the development of foreign trade makes grate pressure on the ecological environment, the government and corporate sector have inadequate environmental protection,the social and economic benefits of foreign trade is very low.Ecological environment security degree of foreign trade for2010, belongs to four, under heavy police state.Found through empirical analysis, the development of foreign trade has made seriously impact on the ecological environment, in particular the eco-environmental pressure indicators,in the giant police state. The province’s foreign trade on the ecological environment, the paper proposes to build an early warning system, strengthen the government’s macro-control, and improve the environmental laws and regulations, as well as the use of environmental economic policy measures to reduce and solve its negative effects. Aiming at the impact of the foreign trade on the ecological environment.This paper proposes to build an early warning system, strengthen the government’s macro-control, and improve the environmental laws and regulations, as well as the use of environmental economic policy measures to reduce and solve its negative effects.