Research On The Healthy Development And Warning System Of Real Estate In Hainan

Realty business is one of the most important industries in national economy. According to related reference, if there is a fluctuation in realty business, more than sixty industries will be affected. As "international tourism island" became a national strategy in January2010, real estate market in Hainan grew rapidly. In order to control the skyrocketing price of real estate, we need an early warning system for the development of real estate market, besides policy and legislation. We could find unfavorable factors and give a suitable solution in time to promote the development of real estate market by the early warning system.Currently, there are three methods of real estate warming systems, which are Business cycle method、System method and Comprehensive simulation. Business cycle method used widely in real estate warning system, however, we need a stable economic environment if using this method. Also, Business cycle method only can used for predict future economic tendency, without a warning of future tendency. So, this method cannot be used here because of an inconsistent of the warning system we need.The basic idea of the integrated simulation method:according to the comprehensiveness, simplicity, stability, practicality, regional of the index system, combine selection criteria of regional real estate’s warning index system, build a set of reasonable and perfect index system which can reflect regional real estate market; based on index system, define specific metrics through this way, at the same time, judge if the actual indicators exceed healthy range of the development; if exceed, send out warning signal and make a judgment about real estate market.Through sorting out the development of Hainan’s real estate, seize its development environment’s particularity, build a set of index system which in accordance with real estate’s state of health of Hainan province to analyze and forecast indicator data of2013in exponential smoothing, expect to make a effective warning, it has important theoretical and practical meaning.