Empirical Research About Influencing Factor Of South Korean Won Exchange Rate

Exchange rate which can be called exchange price as well is a rate a certain currency exchange with the other one, is a kind of currency price indicated by the other kind of currency. Because there are different currency with different purchasing power, so exchange rate is needed between two kinds of currency, from Gold and silver currency times to fixed exchange rate times and to floating exchange rate times, the research about exchange rate is very hot and a lot of exchange rate theory have emerged, among which the ppp theory, Interest rate parity theory, Monetary theory and Bassar-Samuelson effect is the most famous. Though those theories have been tested by time, they still have some drawbacks. For example, the ppp theory can not fit the practical date very well. In fact, those single factor theory can not forecast exchange change very well. Especially in modern society, exchange rates fluctuate all times. As an important part of the economic system, exchange rate market can affect the other economical variable,for example,international tread and fta,obviously. further, certain exchange rate policy which will damage other county can result in revenge. In china who is undergoing a severe reformation and development, the American government is advocating rmb upvaluation utmostly, at the same time, rmb devaluation and rmb stabilization is taking place, the research about exchange rate is urgent and has important significance. For the government,enterprise and individual,obvious exchange determination factors is very important.According to traditional and modern exchange rate theory, by the way of Multifactor, this paper choice gdp、fta, state revenues and expenditures、money supply、interest rate、foreign exchange reserve、inflation rate、Korean exchange rate which is indicated by Korean money vs dollar, rmb exchange rate which is indicated by the weighted average of dollar、Euro%yen%pound、and Hong Kong dollar、as variable, using Cointegration Theory through unit root test and cointegration test,obtained that South Korean Won has a relative good marketization level and Chinese rmb marketization level is insufficient. Definitely, South Korean Won has a good Cointegration relationship with gdp、fta、state revenues and expenditures、money supply、interest rate、foreign exchange reserve、inflation rate but rmb has a good Cointegration relationship only with oreign exchange reserve. Perfecting rmb exchange formation mechanism and keeping it stable on a reasonable and balanced level is the target of rmb exchange reformation,so this paper suggest that rnb marketization reformation, should be going on exchange formation mechanism should be adjusted. To avoid the shocking after rmb marketization,this paper also suggest that economic structural adjustment should be carried out,and domestic demand should be expanded。...