Rising Labor Costs Of Hunan Province Effect On The Development Of Labor-intensive Manufacturing And Prediction Research

With China’s labor price formation mechanism from the traditional cost law reservation wages to live under the restriction of market bargaining type wage law, China’s economic rise rapidly in laborer compensation in the new period, although in recent years the labor costs in China have a fast rising trend, but compared to developed countries or even some developing countries, China’s manufacturing workers compensation is still low, manufacturing labor price undervalued and rising space there. In the higher labor costs, under the premise of manufacturing face more cost pressure, many scholars think China manufacturing cost competitive advantage will be accompanied by a labor price level of increased gradually blurred, manufacturing base transfer happening again, in this context, the labor cost of manufacturing the role of the development of manufacturing industry and its future efforts to influence has certain practical significance.This paper with the unit the capital employing labor more labor-intensive manufacturing as the research object, by China’s important manufacture base of Hunan province as research samples, and uses labor-intensive manufacturing cost competitive advantage as the main line, go to the data processing, comparative analysis, this paper expounds the labor-intensive manufacturing labor cost the cause and the trend of fluctuations, and based on this, the points two levels of Hunan labor-intensive manufacturing cost competitive advantage of the present situation and the trend of change for research. First, the labor cost and profit level two factors on the Hunan labor-intensive manufacturing industrial competitiveness influence, through the empirical test found that both with the Hunan labor-intensive manufacturing industrial competitiveness stable positive correlation exists; Second, use ARIMA model of Hunan labor-intensive manufacturing coming decade of labor costs and the labor productivity level to carry on the forecast, combined with Japan’s1955-2009development of manufacturing experience data, the judge made of Hunan province labor-intensive industry development tendency and the time span of the industrial upgrading.Through this research found that, in the short term, the Hunan labor-intensive manufacturing competitive advantage will be maintained, and should keep the labor costs of moderate growth; But, in the long run, Hunan labor-intensive manufacturing will face more serious cost pressure, this will lead to appear in the industry innovation, migration, enterprise restructuring or bankruptcy differentiation, labor-intensive manufacturing industrial upgrading of irreversible trend. Finally, according to the study conclusion, separately from government, industry, and enterprise three Angle proposed to the labor-intensive manufacturing development of countermeasures.