The Impact Of The Financial Instability To The Macro-economic

With the continuous development of our country’s economy, the financial marketopening to the outside world is also in constant development. Changes in theinternational financial market of our country financial industry and the degree ofvolatility in financial markets also continues to deepen. The economic development ofChina especially the development of the financial sector faces uncertainty factors alsoin unceasing increase. From the development of financial industry, financialinstability is one of the economic system running normal, and this unstable influenceon the development of national economy.In theory, many scholars do a lot of research on financial instability, but most isfrom the theory angle to analyze the influence factors of financial instability andconsequences of financial instability. At the same time, they are based on the internalmechanism of the financial crisis. So far did not form a set of relatively completeindex system to measure the financial instability of macroeconomic impact of thedelay time and the extent of influence in practical application. So financial instabilityon the delay time of macro economic impact and influence of size effect, andobtaining maintain sustained economic steady development countermeasures. Thathas certain practical application value.Based on the comprehensive arrangement and draw lessons from the domestic onthe basis of the literature, and considering the actual situation in our country and theactual situation of economic development and financial instability, and combinationof data availability and operability of the mode, the influence index of financialinstability is divided into three parts: the money market, the capital market and themacroeconomic environment. Respectively we selected a representative indicators ineach part, building a index system of financial instability. Then selecting macroeconomy GDP and consumption, investment, government spending and import andexport department of four representative index of economic urban residentsconsumption, extensive investment in fixed assets, imports and exports and government spending and financial instability index system build the VAR model andimpulse function to study the effect of financial instability of macroeconomic, throughempirical research conclusion as follows:(1) China’s GDP is sensitive to financialinstability index system of different levels, the most sensitive to changes in the broadmoney supply, the sensitivity of the total cost of the stock market price of the second,the least sensitive to financial institutions credit amount.(2) The impact of thefinancial instability index system of our country GDP the duration of the effect isdifferent, including the duration of the broad money supply, the shortest durationtimes the value of the stock market, financial institutions, the longest total credit.(3)China’s consumption and government spending on the sensitive degree of the changeof financial instability is greater than the sensitivity of the total amount of investmentand import and export.(4) All departments in our country economy’s most sensitive tochanges in the broad money supply, total credit to financial institutions and thesensitivity of the total cost of the stock market price is different due to differentvariables.(5) From the point of view of aging, the impact of the broad money supplyeffect of shorter duration, total financial institutions credit and stock market pricesimpact the length of the duration of the effect of the total cost of the dependentvariable.According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward the followingsuggestions from the aspects of macro:(1) GDP indicators of monetary market,capital market in our country, macro environment changes of the sensitive degree ofdifferent. So, to predict the change trend of China’s economy as a whole, not only tograsp from the overall macroeconomic situation, but also to have the choice of target,the level monitoring indicators to monitor economic development trend in our country.(2) Financial instability index system of economic impact on China’s macro economyand departments of delay time is different. In total, the broad money supply can beused as a means of short-term adjustment of the economic, financial institutions andcredit amount and total cost of the stock market can be a long-term means of adjustingeconomy. In need of improvement is that due to some restrictions on the availability of dataand the limitation of the research methods, on the effect of financial instability to ourcountry macroeconomic empirical research is not perfect, still need further discussion,the author will continue to this topic of research in the future study.