| Since the1990s, the problem of oil resources shortage and environment pollution On a global scale become more and more serious. The popularity of traditional automobile increases pressure on energy and environment, its oil consumption accounted for40%to50%of total consumption, at the same time emissions a amounts of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, etc. into the atmosphere. Therefore, new energy vehicles which have the advantage of energy conservation and environmental protection emissions become the direction of automobile industry the reform and transformation. New energy vehicles industry is increasingly become a new industry which could transfer of energy and the environment pressure.Since the1990s, China’s auto industry has realized the great-leap-forward development. As the world’s biggest auto market, China’s car ownership has risen sharply in recent years. At the end of2011, China’s car ownership has reached73.2679million units, which up23.37%from2010.Under the pressures of energy crisis and environmental pollution, the development of new energy vehicles has become the important measures to realize our country automobile industrial upgrading and sustainable development. With the rapid development of automobile industry, China is facing enormous energy consumption and environmental pollution problems. The emergence of new energy vehicles been hailed as a great opportunity to corner overtaking for China’s auto industry, but from the international situation, the gap between China and Europe of vehicle technology and component technology and the market is still very big.Henan province, which as the Earlier domestic development of new energy vehicles, has a group of strong foundation of automobile production enterprises, and has formed quite a scale lithium-ion battery production enterprises which have advanced technology. Henan province which locates in the central plain, also has a convenient transportation and logistics and solid foundation of industrial. Along with the formation and the construction of the central plains economic zone, and advantages in Henan, has provided the development of new energy vehicles industry a broad space. Any economic activity of development process coexist risk. The development process of Henan province new energy vehicles industry is inevitably accompanied by policy risk, technology risk, market risk and operational risk. At present Henan province has made some achievements in the new energy vehicles industry development, but in order to realize industrialization of new energy vehicles need more way to go.Finally, this paper setted up the risk system of new energy vehicles industrialization in Henan province, calculated the weights of risk of new energy vehicles industrialization in Henan province, evaluated the risk of new energy vehicles industry in Henan province. Secondly, this paper predicted the development trend of energy structure about Henan province, used objective data to confirms the necessity of the development new energy vehicles industry in Henan province. Firstly, This paper analyzes the present situation of the domestic and foreign and Henan province’s new energy automobile industry development, introduces the home and abroad research results of new energy vehicles industry.This paper use of econometric software EVIEWS to established ARIMA predictive model and applied to the objective weighting method which is the improved entropy method, rediscovered Henan province in the process of the industrialization of new energy vehicles accompanied by risk from a objective view. Come up with the corresponding countermeasures according the key risk which influence the development of new energy vehicles industry in Henan province. New energy vehicles industrialization needs to go a long way to development. When various aspects such as technology, market, operation, policy and so on are at the mature stage, new energy vehicles are truly adapt to the economic social, as economic activities for the economic social. |
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