Research Of The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Consumption And Saving Behaviors

For the past ten years, Chinese monetary policy control effect did not reach theexpected objectives monetary policy. Monetary policy effectiveness research becamethe hotspot. Most of the literature about the effectiveness of monetary policy from themacro Angle to analyze the problem, but that is not enough. Monetary policy toolsinfluence consumer behavior, monetary policy effect is developed. Mastering thereaction of micro economic subject to monetary policy impulse is important.Analyzing actions of consumers, companies, banks and local government is needed.Based on consumer behavior, analyze the main components of consumption andthe monetary policy transmission channel, using micro-economic consumption theory.First take the resident consumer behavior theory and the monetary policy theory ofconduction as the rationale, through analyzes our country residents to expend thedeposit characteristic and the domestic and foreign resident’s expense depositsituation, unifies our country all previous years implementation the monetary policy,discovered that our country residents expend the deposit behavior the monetary policyinfluence characteristic. Then, to affects the resident to expend the deposit behaviorthe primary factor and the monetary policy expends the deposit behavior to theresident the conduction channel to carry on the theoretical analysis. The primaryfactor which then the influence resident who proposed in view of the theory partexpends the deposit behavior the primary factor, the utilization multiple regressionmodel, the vector from the regression model (VAR) and the error correction model(ECM) three kind of models carries on the real diagnosis, the examination theory partmentions the influence resident who expends the influence effect which expends toour country residents, the quantification analyzes our country monetary policy tool tothe resident consumer behavior influence. Finally, proposing some advises ofenhancing monetary policy validity based on resident consumer behaviorcharacteristic.The empirical results show that: The main consumption depends on the influenceof disposable income level; savings has some negative stimulation to the currentconsumption; with the increasing of the savings, savings positive effect the consumer;inflation promote the consumption of the residents positively and obviously and it isthe second most important factor to consumption but it isn’t last long; rural residentswould consume more than urban residents when center bank carrying out a inflationpolicy; interest rates affect to the residents’ consumption negatively and little incurrent period, then it turns oppositely, wealth effect taking place of substitution effectof interest rate; the effect of money supply to consumption is getting much moreobvious after the time lag. In summery, residents’ consumption can be promoted byChinese monetary policy to a certain extent, and time-lag of monetary policy existsobviously.