The Alternately Promotion Effect Between The Development Of Communication And National Economy

This thesisselects GDP and telecom business volume based on2000constant price between1978-2010as thesummary measure of the development of national economy and communications industry. It differences the two sequences into a stationary series by using time series models, and then coordinates the inspection of them, finding that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between GDP and telecom business volume, thereby it establishes the error correction model. Furthermore, its Granger causality test results show that there is a two-way Granger causality between GDP and telecom business volume. This thesis is divided into the following four chapters.Chapter1:Introduction. This chapter begins with an overview of the background of this research and gives a simple review of existing research, on the basis of which this chapter introduces the content, structure, and innovations of this thesis.Chapter2:Theoretical basis. This thesistakes research methods of time series econometrics, co-integration test, error correction model, and Granger causality mainly, for which reason that this chapter mainly elaborates the theoretical basis of them.Chapter3:The theoretical and Granger cause analysis of the relationship between China’s telecommunications industry and the national economy. This chapter takes theoretical and Granger cause analysis of the relationship between the development of China’s national economy and communications industry.The Granger cause analysis selects the1978-2010data as the analysis object, and then takes stationary test, co-integration, error correction model and Granger causality analysis on it. Chapter4:Summary. It summarizes the main findings of the research, puts forward to strategic recommendations, and points out the insufficiencies of the thesis in the end.