Macroeconomic Fluctuation And Survival Condition Of Enterprise

This paper based on relations of macroeconomic fluctuation and the survivalconditions of enterprises analysis macroeconomic fluctuation impact on the enterprisesurvival condition in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model has fivedepartments and has four shocks including money prefer shock, technology shock,credit shock and monetary policy shock to research fluctuation influence on theenterprise survival condition. To describe survival conditions of firms, this model hasendogenous number of the enterprise and the reasons as follows: first, endogenousnumber of the enterprise can correct the welfare of consumer. Second, the regime ofendogenous number of the enterprise can increase transmitting of the macroeconomicshocks. Third, if there be founded a new firm, the industry which new firms has beenfounded will more fierce competition. Under this condition, product has much lessvariety than older and has more replace function. Producer has much less monopolypower and pricing than older.This paper use methods of parameter calibration and data simulation to calculatestandard deviation and correlation coefficient of simulation data and real data. We canfind that the model can explain really macroeconomic fluctuation impacting on thesurvival conditions of enterprises to compare result of simulation. At last, this papercomputes the impulse response and variance decomposition to find the result as follows:first, credit shock and technology shock is the main reason, but they have different timestructure, the credit shock is short term and technology shock is long-run. Second,money demand shock and monetary policy shock has less affect than others, and hasshort or medium affect.According to these result, this paper come up with some proposals includingtechnology innovation, monetary policy, constructing multi-level capital market andsupporting for new payment method and so on. These proposals refer to regulations,liquidity and fiscal policy and so on. See sixth chapter.