Study On Prediction For Labor Supply And Demand Of Guangdong Between2011and2020

This thesis firstly presents situations of Guangdong Province’s labor supply anddemand based on the description and analysis. Then, it predicts the number of GuangdongProvince’s supply and demand during2011and2020. The conclusion is that the laborsupply of Guangdong will gradually reduce in next ten years.It utilizes age-structured population shift algorithm in closed conditions of workingage population for prediction of labor supply. And it uses gray prediction model GM (1,1)to predict migration of the future ten years in Guangdong. Then, on the basis of economicdevelopment trend of Guangdong in future predicts three schemes of labor forceparticipation rate in high, low and average. Finally, the population of working agemultiplies by the labor force participation rate, get number of Guangdong’s supply of laborduring2011and2020. It forecasts labor demand according to the index data of2001-2010to establish Cobb-Douglas model. And it establishes regression model of economic output,input of capital and technology about time, to forecast data of the future ten year. Finally, itgets the amount of labor demand, according to total economic output, input of capital andtechnology to predict the number of Cobb-Douglas model during2011and2020. On thebasis of the above analysis, this thesis predicts gap of labor’s supply and demand ofGuangdong in next ten years. And it will mine that the labor’s supply and demand willgradually narrow in the labor force participation rate is high, low and average.Based on the above analysis, this thesis suggests that local government puts forward torelaxing the policy, deepening reform of the household registration, improving employmentpolicies®ulations, improving quality of workers, and promoting upgrading of theindustrial structure in five aspects.