Research On Estimate And Forecast Technologies Of Microblog Hotspot

The estimate and forecast technologies of microblog hotspot is a task for mining the latenthotspot information from the mass of microblog data, expressing topic multi-informationintegrate, topic ranks and tracking the general trend of the hotspot on microblog. It istheoretically and practically valuable in microblog public voice early warning and detecting theemergencies. This thesis proposes a hotspot forecast framework based on the expression modelof microblog topic multi-information and carries out the research in the MB-dLDA model formicroblog text and estimate and forecast technologies of hotspot. The main work of this paperconsists of parts below:1. In view of the shortcoming of topic information expression capacity of existing method,we proposes an expression model for expressing microblog topic multi-information, on whichwe analyzing the general character of topics on microblog. Introduce the theory of microbloglife period and proposes a method based on the concepts of microblog Attrition to update thetopic information dynamically. The experiment prove effectiveness of this method.2. We design a text model for microblog called MB-dLDA which improved with thestructured and dynamical data features. Using MB-dLDA for modeling the microblog text data,and for analyzing interaction of dynamical topic. The experiment prove that this this method iseffective.3. With the multi-information of topic and the general character of topics on microblog, weextract the estimate index from characteristic of users, keywords and repost of microblog of topicfor the hotspot analysis. We use the analytic hierarchy prices(APH) to calculate index weight forhotspot estimate. The experiment prove that this method improve the accuracy and efficiency ofhotspot detection compare with the method based on the term frequency statistics result. With thehotspot estimate we propose a hotspot forecast method based on the repost characteristic ofmicroblog. The experiment prove that this method is effective.At last, we summarizes the study of this thesis, and the future developing trend of Theestimate and forecast technologies of microblog hotspot is indicated.