An Analysis On The Sporttery Of Football Betting Strategy

Since May1,2009, the sporttery of football was on sale on the market; its sales have been increasing day by day during the past4years, and it is becoming the main force beyond the traditional lottery. Its rapid development not only narrows the distance with lottery buyers, but also provides a new way of investment for the lottery. The sporttery of football is different from the digital type lottery, can be predicted, so it is feasible for the sporttery of football betting strategy research. This paper sets football matches’win-even-loss records as research object, uses mathematical methods analyzing the feasibility of the prediction, and successfully improves the prediction accuracy.First of all, this paper briefly introduces the playing and betting rules and the calculation of winning amount; then it makes detailed elaboration on three the foreign authoritative predicting methods and domestic research status of the sporttery of football betting strategy.Secondly, by using the method of correlation analysis in statistics, this paper makes the correlation analysis between team strength and scoring rate, reveals the scientific basis to predict with scoring rate, describes the operating principle of this prediction method, and points out that relying solely on the scoring rate for forecasting’s shortcoming is that, it can’t prevent unexpected winner.Thirdly, this paper describes the principle of using Markov chain model to predict, and briefly introduced of the reasons why football match "unexpected goals" took place, presents two Markov chain forecasting methods based on the European odds index sequence, and comes to conclusion that using this method to predict can slight the strength between two sides in the contest and improve prevention of "unexpected".Finally, considering the advantages and disadvantages of betting strategy, this paper makes empirical analysis by integrated using score rate forecasting method and Markov chain by taking a period of SMG football as an example, and gives specific betting strategy, verifies the feasibility of this integrated approach and in practical prediction of maneuverability. It turns out that the forecast effect is good, can be considered as a reference for Lottery buyers.