A Study On The Influencing Factors And Prevention Countermeasures Of Transmitted Inflation In China

In recent years, inflation continued at a high level. At the same time, the rapidly rising in international commodity prices had significant effect on the inflation in China. The most direct concept associated with this economic phenomenon is "imported inflation". At present, more and more research care on the imported inflation, the government and scholars pay attention on inflation more and more closely. This paper intends to research generating mechanism and transmission path theoretically, and uses nearly10-years data of China to test the influencing factors empirically.Firstly this paper summaries the theoretical study on the transmission mechanism of the domestic and foreign scholars about imported inflation; then studies specific pathway on the facing imported inflation in China; argues that Chinese current international trade in imported inflation conduction path can be divided into transmission (international commodities such as food prices, International crude oil prices, etc) and capital inflows (such as RMB exchange rate passes) transmission. Based on the analysis theory of conduction, it applies static and dynamic analysis for the inflationary models in the empirical part. Firstly, based on extended Phillips curve equation, this paper estimates the external shock model of measurement within the main influencing factors, and the results indicate that the commodities price, such as international food, and crude oil, etc, produces significant effects positivity, and Real effective exchange rate negatively; then uses cointegration analysis method to research cointegrated relationship between external shocks variable with the inflation rate, and the results show that it exists long term Cointegration relationship among themselves; At last, the paper establishes a State-space model based on variable parameter dynamic model of Chinese inflation and uses Kalman filter algorithm to estimate it, and the results show that China’s imported inflation is influenced Obviously by international food prices, international crude oil prices affect it weakly, and the short term and long term negative relationships exist between Real effective exchange rate and the inflation rate.In the part of countermeasures about curbing imported inflation; based on the theory research and empirical test results, the paper makes some policy recommendations:we should strengthen forecasting research about international commodity price, through using fully powers economic body status, hard to fight for pricing of international commodities, and improve the strategic reserve system of international commodities, Reasonably avoid impact of shocking of international commodities price; on the other hand, gradually promote reforming of RMB exchange rate, reasonably guide the rising of RMB exchange rate, and try to seize the opportunity to improve the international status of the RMB, and accelerate the internationalization process.