Study Of Effectiveness Evaluation Of Emergency Plans Based On Gray Theory

In recent years, various kinds of accidents and natural disasters occur frequently, causingserious harm to people’s life and property. Although emergencies are inevitable, effectiveemergency response is an effective way to reduce the people’s loss and social harm.Emergency Plans is a guide to action for possible emergencies, plays a key role in theemergency response system. Since the1980s, the role of emergency plans was gradually to berecognized, which inspired a research boom of developing a more scientific, reasonable andeffective emergency plans. Scholars manage a comprehensive evaluation on the emergencyplan’s feasibility and effectiveness of implementation from many aspects, such as preparationof plans, implementation and effects. However, the existing evaluation methods can only get acomprehensive evaluation of the emergency response plans, which is difficult to diagnose thespecific disadvantages. Therefore, from the effects of the implementation of emergency plans,this article adopts the Gray Theory to build a comprehensive evaluation model. Through theimplementation of existing plans, we carry out the comprehensive assessment from theoverall index to the whole, and points out the main drawback of the specific diagnostic plan,then provide valuable advices for improvement.To build a scientific and reasonable evaluation model, this paper starts with studying thebasic theory. On the basis of adequate learning for the basic theoretical knowledge ofemergency plans and comparison between different kinds of common evaluation methods, wechoose the Grey System Evaluation Method to evaluate the implement effect, and study thebasic method of clustering gray correlation methods deeply. During the period of building aevaluation model, we study the basic process of evaluating the implement effect of a certainemergency plan, and propose a notification method upon expert objective index weight basedon the Bayesian Methods, considering the importance of expert role. Then according to theanalysis of evaluation process, we put forward a selecting method of evaluation index, amethod of determining the weight of index and an evaluation model of emergency plans usingthe theoretical knowledge of the Grey System Method, then building a complete evaluationthe implement effect of emergency plans. Finally, we verify the feasibility of the evaluationmodel by Example Analytic Operator.The comprehensive evaluation model based on the Gray theory not only ensures aeffective evaluation that under conditions of poor information, but also ensures acomprehensive evaluation from the individual index. That means both evaluation anddiagnose, which is important for further improvement.