Coordination Of Emergency Decision-making In Complex Large Group Conflict And Post-conflict Measure

The emergency decision-making is a multi-stage decision making under uncertainty and a dynamic random sequential decision problem, based on the evolution of emergency. The modern emergency decision making involves experts and members in many different fields and organizations. There exist inherent conflict because of different background, knowledge and information coupled with the complexity and uncertainty of the decision making itself. The measure and coordination of conflict is essential to form a scientific feasible result under high time pressure in a decision making. To this end, this paper focuses on the conflict measure and coordination between complex large group members in emergency decision making, which provides a theoretical support for the emergency decision support system. The major research work are as follows:The conflict measure models of interest conflict, cognitive conflict and mixed conflict are partly proposed. They are used in the measure of conflict between large group members, conflict between sub-groups, as well as the conflict of entire group.Based on the conflict measure models, preference structure analysis of large group is implemented. Conflict threshold is a key factor in determining the quality of group decision making, because a certain level of conflict can effectively inhibit groupthink, ensure the quality of group decision making. Thus, the conflict threshold selection method is given.Based on the models of conflict measure and preference structure analysis of large group, conflict consultation model of complex large group in emergency decision making is proposed. With the support of computer, it becomes faster to reach group consensus.Based on the conflict consultation model in emergency decision making under certain conditions, conflict consultation model in multi-program emergency decision making under uncertainty conditions is proposed. We consider the case of preference in the form of interval intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The corresponding conflict measure model is defined and corresponding conflict consultation model is given.