| Recent years, The global natural disasters becoming more and more. The earthquake as "the greatest harm" natural disasters becoming more and more intense. Earthquake disaster can course large number casualties and huge economic losses, but the earthquake prediction has been a worldwide problem, research on earthquake trend judgment has becoming a pressing matter of the earthquake workers.Now the methods used in earthquake are difference, but most of them are from the only theoretical analysis, such as geochemistry, geophysics,geognosy and so on, and the research from phenomenological theory to explain the earthquake occurrence very seldom. This paper applies space-time symmetry method, from a phenomenological point of view to find earthquake mechanism, combined with exploration the relationship between the earthquake and the factor of outer earth impact and itself influence, objective to find out the suitable method of Sichuan-Yunnan region seismic hazard trend judgment, provide a new idea for Earth Science understanding symmetral rule, to do some basic work for the earthquake prediction research.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Since twentieth Century Sichuan-Yunan region both Ms≥6.7and Ms≥7.1earthquake have a good commensurability, and can compose a complete commensurability structure. Three yuan,four yuan and five yuan commensurable calculation result that:in this region the year2013may happen Ms≥6.7earthquake, the confidence level is99.5%and the random probability is70%; the year2015may happen Ms≥7.1earthquake, the confidence level is99.5%and the random probability is66.7%.Since twentieth Century Yunan region Ms≥6.5earthquake have a good commensurability, Three yuan,four yuan and five yuan commensurable calculation result that:in this region the year2014and2017may happen Ms>6.5earthquake, the confidence levels are89%and99%and the random probabilities are55.6%and38%; Analyses since nineteenth Century Sichuan region Ms≥6.8earthquake have a good commensurability, the commensurable calculation result that:in this region the year2013and2016may happen Ms>6.8earthquake, the confidence level is99.5%and and the random probability is52.6%.(2) Since twentieth Century Sichuan-Yunan region both Ms≥6.7have a good distribution of triangle and quadrilateral space, combine with analysis the epicenter longitude and latitude pendulum move, calculation result that:next Ms≥6.7earthquake may be in the east of101°E and the south of27°N. Since sixteenth Century Yunan region Ms≥7earthquake have a shake characteristic that as101.5°E for the axis of symmetry, and have a good distribution of triangle space, to infer the future earthquake location may be in the east of101°E and the south of30°N, that is the southeast region of Sichuan.(3)From the angle of epistemology to explain the information prediction of phenomenological theory and academic thoughts of WengWenbo, periodic, commensurability and patio-temporal symmetry all of them are kind of order, is the objective existence in the world, and the order only to be used in actual can be know. Patio-temporal symmetry is our extension of information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo, using the time symmetry to find out future earthquakes possible time, using the spatial symmetry to find out future earthquakes possible locations, in this way we do judgment on the three elements of earthquake prediction.(4)There are obvious relationship between the sunspot activity and the Ms≥7earthquake of Sichuan-Yunnan region since eighteenth Century, the relationship is not obvious in eighteen Century and nineteenth Century earthquake in sunspot activity decline, the B equal to1, but after entering in twentieth Century, the time of Sichuan-Yunnan region Ms≥7earthquake mostly near sunspot activity Valley year, the B equal to1.57. In the past three year the trend of corresponding between the time earthquake occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region and the time of sunspot acceptivity has become more obvious. Calculate the next sunspot relative number valley year near in2019, which the probability of Ms≥7earthquake occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region is78.3%, and the confidence level is97.5%.(5)There is not obvious relationship between the rotation speed or acceleration deceleration of the earth and the time Ms≥7earthquake occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region, but there is a positive correlation between the magnitude of change trend of earth rotation speed and earthquake2years average sliding trend line, that the rotation of the earth on the slower the earthquake magnitude is greater of Sichuan-Yunnan region, the rotation of the earth on the faster the earthquake magnitude is smaller of Sichuan-Yunnan region. In recent years from2003to date is during the slow rotation speed of the earth, so that is dangerous period for the earthquake occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region. |
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