Research On The Influence Of Analytic Thinking To The Bias In Affective Forecasting

Emotion gradually attention by the researchers in the study of dicion making after thetheory of bounded rationality of humen by Simon.The kind of decision making is not nolyrelated to instant emotion but also to affective forecasting.Affective forecasting is theemotional state of individuals to predict the thing of future, the emotion is positive ornegative,certain emotion,the instansity and duration of emotion are including.People don’talways accurately predict emotions are proved by after stydies,often it can be accuratelyestimated is the positive or negative of emotion and what emotions (happy or sad, etc.),but notfor the intensity and duration estimation.It is referred to as emotional prediction deviation andcalled the strength and time deviation bias in affective forecasting emotion.The occurrence of emotion forecast affects the decision making.for example,if peopleexpected in the big house for more happiness than out to travel every year, then they maybebegin to shrink in the travel expenses.And we all know, the bias is with to affectiveforecasting,then we may make the wrong decisions, which make the wrong consumptionpatterns and thus indirectly affect our happiness.The existing research has shown thatemotional prediction deviation have influence to decision-making, interpersonalrelationship,physical and mental health, and consumption and so on all.The research of influence has focused on the ninety’s,domestic research focus is onemotion prediction theory, influence factors and the relationship with the decision.In recentyears, in the field of reasoning and decision-making, the theory of dual system processing isput forward and rise up to cause the attention of many researchers.dual－process theoryincluding heuristic system and analytic system.Intuition and analysis are two different ways ofinformation processing, the former is unconscious, fast, without effort,the latter isconscious,slow,and need to work on.This study plan to from the point of dual－process theory to further study emotionprediction deviation, control group and start the group emotional prediction deviation, as wellas the bid is accepted and rejected emotion prediction deviation. Research by adopting the combination of experiment and questionnaire method, is arandom sample of120subjects from LuDong University students. Experimental materials is:(1) the self-made emotional rating scale (2) the ultimatum game (3) visual materials.Using analysis of variance, paired sample t test, and a variety of statistical methods suchas main effect analysis, using spss16.0to data processing, the research conclusion assumesthat the basic consistent with the experiment, prove analytical thinking can reduce theprediction deviation mood.Main conclusions are the following:(1) predict the strength of thesignificant deviation and time deviation. Both of positive emotions and negative emotions areforecasting overestimates of the emotion;(2) emotional prediction deviation exist significantdifferences on gender and age, there is no significant difference on the subject. On gender,men are more likely than women to have mood forecast deviation; On the age, junior collegestudents are more likely to have emotional prediction deviation; On the subject, the school ofarts living than science students are more likely to have emotional prediction deviation.(3)after start the analytical thinking, there is no emotion predict the strength of the deviation;Start the group under the condition of the subjects distribution scheme is accepted, there is noemotion predict time deviation; In the case of rejection, mood forecast time deviation;(4)start the analytical thinking can reduce the prediction deviation mood.(5) with different titermood forecast, forecast forecast deviation exists significant differences.The purpose of this study is based on the analysis of thinking the next emotion predictiondeviation, can further understand the role of emotional prediction deviation indecision-making, improve the decision-making theory. Practice, to start thinking moodforecast deviation under study, can help people further understanding emotions predictiondeviation, reasonable to treat mood in everyday life prediction deviation, raisedecision-making ability, improve the quality of decisions.