A Projection Of Potential Distribution Of Three Main Pests On Northern Crops In China Under Global Warming

A combination of DYMEX based on niche model and ArcGIS for graphic processing was used to make the projection of potential distribution under current and future global warming scenarios for Helicoverpa armigrea, Sitodiplosis mosellana, Ostrinia furnacalis in China. The projection showed northward and westward shift of the pests under global warming, which would provide basis for adaptation of integrated management of crop insect pests in northern China.1. Potential distribution of Helicoverpa armigrea under global warmingThe projection results indicated that highly suitable habitats would be located in central and south of Henan province, north of Anhui and Hubei provinces, south of Jiangxi and Fujian, Hunan, Guangxi, Guangdong provinces, in juncture of Shanxi and Gansu (Tianshui) provinces and in juncture of Sichuan and Tibet (Batang) provinces. Moderately suitable habitats would include most areas along the Yellow and Yangtze rivers. Low suitable habitats would mainly lie in the three provinces of Northeastern China, Xinjiang, Tibet and Qinghai provinces. A3℃increase in temperature as projected under the global warming scenario at the end of this century would shift the northern border of moderately suitable habitats upward from a line of Yingkou, Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Yan’an, Lanzhou, and Batang toward a line of Shenyang, Hohhot, Jiuquan, Gomud and Lhasa, as a result of increase of3°in latitude and300-500M in elevation. Large areas of Xinjiang would become moderately suitable habitats from current low suitable habitats. While some highly suitable habitats would expand in Tianshui and Batang regions under global warming, some other habitats would be contracted in some areas of Northern and Southern China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Hainan provinces.2. Potential distribution of Sitodiplosis mosellana under global warmingThe projection results based on current bio-climates indicated that highly suitable habitats of S. mosellana mainly included whole of Henan, most of Shaanxi, east of Gansu, south of Ningxia, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, north of Jiangsu, Anhui, junction between Sichuan and Tibet (Batang). Moderately suitable habitats would included some areas along The Yellow River in North China. Low suitable habitats would mainly lie in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, most areas of Sichuan and Yunnan, some areas of Chongqing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan; Non-suitable areas included south of the Yangtze river basin and most of Xinjiang, Tibet. With the3℃increase in temperature as projected under the global warming scenario at the end of this century, moderately suitable habitats of S. mosellana changed from south to north across3.3～4.1°in latitude, from a line of Baotou, Hohhot, Datong, Baoding, Cangzhou, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Jinzhou, Anshan, Dandong to a line of Huolinguole, Tongyu, Tongliao, Siping, Liaoyuan, Helong, Longjing; And from east to west, from a line of Jinchang, Wuhai, Haidong, Maqu to a line of Zhangye, Wulan, Xinghai, Gande, and elevation increased an average of500～700M. The highly suitable habitats of S. mosellana shifted northward by an average of2.2～3.6°in latitude from a line of Longnan, Dingxi, Guyuan, Yan’an, Linfen, Handan, Jining to a line of Xining, Wuwei, Shizuishan, Yulin, Shuozhou, Baoding, Tianjin; And from east to west, from a line of Tianshui, Guyuan to a line of Xining, Wuwei, and shifted up by an average of600-800M in elevation.3. Potential distribution for Ostrinia furnacalis under global warmingThe projection results indicated that the expansion regions of Ostrinia furnacalis are irregular, in general, spreading northward for higher altitude and higher elevation. Large alteration in suitable areas occurred mainly in three provinces in northeast China, Xinjiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, and southeast coastal areas. In the northeast region, highly suitable habitats shifted westward and northward to the territory of Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia; The low suitable habitats changed westward, from north China, northwest, southwest to high altitudes of Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu. In south China, the range of O. furnacalis contracted obviously, all of the highly suitable habitats became low suitable or non-suitable. In southeast coastal areas, the distribution shifted from south of Fujian, northeast of Guangdong to the areas of Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces.