Researches On World Rice Yield Simulation Under The Future Drought Scenarios~1

With the increase of the frequency, intensity about extreme drought events led by global warming, it will bring new challenges to water security, food security and other problems around the world. In future, the increasing population will bring more pressure to the increasing grain yield, such as the sub-tropical regions of Africa and Asia. Global warming brings different impacts on different regions. Due to the close relationship between agricultural production and climate change, climate change will affect any degree or significant potential for agricultural production and related process. Increased drought events may not show it in the short term, but through the long-term cumulative process it may cause a sudden impact. Rice is one of the major crops in the world. So study the response of the climate change in rice and rice agriculture in different regions to climate change is of great significance.The core scientific problem in this paper is the world simulated yield of rice in future scenarios. Building a global model is a basic work of the pattern of agricultural drought in the context of global change research. Firstly, this paper shows its research status in agricultural drought risk from the crop growth model, based on the progress in research of crop modeling domestic discussion. Then, this paper select suitable crop model for papers and proposes the global production simulation approach under future scenarios. The main work about this paper as follows:1.The global rice cultivation partition. This article takes the world rice as a research object, the world’s rice-growing areas as a study area, to get the world rice distribution. Then, the article builds the appropriate database and the world’s rice planting partition combined hazard bearing body and environmental characteristics of the disaster-partitions. By taking the idea of "partition-parameter optimization-verify", the article gets the natural zoning of the world’s rice-growing region. This is the basis of the global production simulation. 2. Constructing EPIC-R model about the simulation of global rice production. By constructing the EPIC-R model simulation of global production, this article more accurately simulate the future pattern of global rice production. Meanwhile, the article gets the global rice production of the next30years by global production simulation module, and through the inspection, verification and verified the yield. This is the basis of the global production simulation under future scenarios.3. IPCC5scenario-based simulations of future global rice production. This article studies the rice yield in the global-scale simulation. And it puts forwards quantitative modeling of global rice production methods by IPCCAR5four concentrations Scenario. Then it discusses the future concentration of scenarios rice weather conditions change using EPIC-R model, gets the rice yield under different scenarios in the future. In the end,by analyzing India, Indonesia,and China, this article analyze the world rice production trend analysis under different concentrations.