| Agriculture is one of the areas that are most sensitive to climate change. Studying the responses ofagriculture in different regions to climate change, as well as their sensitivity and vulnerability, aresignificant to adopt active adaptation measures, ensure food security, and promote sustainabledevelopment in agriculture, society and economy.The article focused on irrigated spring maize productivity in two similar climate zones, Yulin inChina and Bari in Europe. A1B and B2emission scenarios of SRES were first selected to drive threeGCMs, including HadCM3, HadGEM and MIROC-hi to estimate future climate. Then MAGICC modelwas used to build the regional climate change response scenarios if global mean temperature (GMT)increased by1℃and2℃which were compared with baseline period (1980-1999), meaning1.4℃and2.4℃higher than pre-industrial climate. Based on the climate estimations, SIMMETRO, a randomweather generator, was utilized to generate future daily meteorological data to drive validatedCERES-Maize model, which could simulate the potential impact of GMT increase on maize anthesisday, maturity day, biomass and yield in Yulin and Bari. Their relative changes and probabilities tobaseline were calculated to evaluate the sensitivity difference of maize planted in Yulin and Bari toclimate change and distinguish the sources of these differences. Primary conclusions were as following:(1) In the scenarios of1℃and2℃rise for GMT, Yulin and Bari presented varying degrees ofregional climate change. In terms of interdecadal changes of average climate state, average temperaturein Bari would increase more than in Yulin for most scenarios if GMT added by1℃. However, thesituation was contrary while GMT increased by2℃. Rainfall was increased in Yulin while decreased inBari. Considered by monthly values change, while GMT added by1℃, temperature in Bari wouldincrease more than in Yulin in most months, as well as during maize growth period. While GMTincreased by2℃, Bari would become warmer if estimated by HadCM3and MIROC-hi, but thesituation was opposite by HadGEM.(2) No matter which climate scenario was used in the evaluation, GMT+1℃or GMT+2℃, maizeanthesis day in Bari was more sensitive to climate change than that in Yulin. This could be attributed tomore increase in temperature, and less thermal time demands for maize juvenile phase in Bari than thatin Yulin. In contrast, maize maturity day in Yulin was more susceptive to climate change than that inBari due to less thermal time requirement from silking to physiological maturity for maize in Yulin,meaning easier to reach the demands and quicken maturity. And more increase in temperature, moreshortening for growth period.(3) Warming had a negative effect on maize biomass in both sites principally, especially in Yulin.The difference rose from better solar radiation during maize growth period in Bari and more shorteningfor growth period in Yulin. CO2fertilizer effect played a compensating role on biomass.(4) Maize yield in Yulin was more sensitive to temperature change, and influenced by climatewarming more negatively because of higher sensitivity for maize biomass in Yulin, as well as grainfilling period length. More increase in temperature, more severe yield reduction. CO2fertilizer effect on yield was greater than that on biomass and could significantly decrease the risk of yield reduction.(5) The impact of climate change on maize production was principally negative in both places, andhigher sensitivity occurred in Yulin. CO2enrichment had an apparent fertilizer effect upon maizeproductivity, especially in Bari. These could be attributed to the difference in regional climate change,as well as the various characteristics of maize cultivar planted in these places. Introducing and breedingmaize cultivar adapted to climate change would be an important aspect for ensuring food security. |
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