The Research On The Matching Pattern Between Water Resources Carrying Capacity And The Population-Economy In Vulnerable Immigrant Eco-Regions

Water resources carrying capacity affects the sustainable development of society, economy and population directly. Because water resource is the important restricted resources of impacting ecological environment and population, the coordinated development of social economy in Hingsibu District, so researching on carrying capacity of water resources, the matching model for water resources and population, economy is of great significance, which can coordinate the relationship between the use of water resource and the social-economic development.This paper taken Hongsibu District as the study area, the carrying capacity of water resources and the matched pattern among water resources, population and economy were the main research contents. State space method is adopted to evaluate water carrying capacity. The quantitative analysis was made by the matching model of P-E-R, in this way,the matching situation of the water resources, population and economy were showed, analyzed the matching relation among them. On the basis of above, according to the ecological fragile situation in Hongsibu District, Analysis of the coordinated development degree among water resources, social economy and ecological environment were done by the coordination degree model and analytic hierarchy process(AHP).The results showed that:(1)The real state of water resources carrying capacity in Hongsibu District was overloaded. But as the economic development, industrial structure adjustment and the acceleration of urbanization, water resources carrying condition is improving, closing to the ideal value of water resources carrying capacity.(2)The matching type for water resources, population and economy was not matched, in the state of backward economy, insufficient of water resources. The pressure indexes of population to economy and population to water resources were greater than1. The carrying pattern of both water resource and economy were insufficient. Economic pressure index decreased with the economy, but water resources pressure index appeared increasing with volatility as the regional population increased. Economic carrying population and resources carrying population were overloaded, the largest carrying mount of water resource was132000, with the development of economy and adjustment of the utilized structure of water resources, the comprehensive carrying population is increasing. The development and construction in the region shall be based on restricted resources as the constraint conditions, the scale of population should be controlled and develop economy reasonably in order to prevent the situation of overload population, backward economy, water resources deficit.(3) The coordination development level among water resources, social economy and ecological system changed steadily during the study period of2009-2012.,but fallen slightly in2012in Hongsibu District.According to the coordination degree division, coordination level changed from nearly disorder in2009to low-grade of imbalance in2012, trended to the deterioration. Coordination index dropped from0.49to0.35. It indicated that the coordinate condition is not ideal, index fallen to mild disorder. The relationship the social economic development and water resources, ecological environment were not optimistic.