New Electrified Railway Load Forecasting And Its Effectiveness Evaluation

Electrified railway in our country has developed rapidly in recent years, with the electrified railway large-scale engineering construction, the new electrified railway power quality problem getting more and more the attention of people. In the research of the new electrified railway traction power supply system to the influence of power quality prediction, traction load forecasting is the foundation. Only through early for new electrified railway load forecast, mastering the distribution characteristics of the traction substation feeder current, can provide more detailed information for the study of traction load on the impact of power quality.At first, this paper analyzes the electrified railway traction substation feeder current characteristic, getting the basic digital characteristic parameters, and then the Beta distribution function and monte carlo method is introduced. Then on the basis of the measured data statistical analysis find that using the Beta function is not fitting well large diurnal feeder current no-load probability histogram probability density function. Through the contrast of cumulative distribution function of traction load curve, found that a certain regularity among the cumulative distribution function of different traction load curve, and then according to the plot of the cumulative distribution function of the traction load on the basis of the testing data, traction load test data classification results being obtained. By comparing the same category of traction load probability density function histogram and characteristic parameters of the similar traction load, the boundary conditions of the measured data came to be. Then respectively using monte carlo method, approximate sampling method for new electrified railway load forecasting and the evaluation of the effectiveness are introduced. Due to the monte carlo method and approximate sampling method of traction load forecasting are not able to achieve the ideal effect, finally got the load classification method for the new constructed electrified railway load forecasting, and by comparing the characteristic parameters of measured data and predicted data, calculating and analyzing its error, verifing the effectiveness of the selected boundary conditions, thus proving the validity of the load classification method.Finally setting the SuiYu electrified railway line as an example, the basic digital characteristic parameters is obtained by calculation, using the load classification method to predict the new constructed electrified railway load.