Study On Spatial Load Forecasting Method Based On The Load Density Index

Spatial load forecasting not only needs to predict the size of the future load, but also topredict the position where the future load appears, is essential for urban network planningcalculations. The prediction results determine the volume and distribution of power equipmentconfiguration, the forecasting accuracy has a significant effect on urban network construction andits safety and economic operation.This paper introduces in detail the research status of spatial load forecasting method, andanalyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various SLF methods and its applicable situationand so on. In view of the standardization of our country urban planning, the nature of the futureurban land use have been basically defined, this paper makes a systematic and in-depth study onthe load density index method.Firstly, the Important tool of spatial load forecasting that geographic information system isintroduced, and we focuse on the application of GIS in spatial load forecasting. Then, consider themany factors that influence the development of power load, considering its effect forecastingmodel is established to improve the forecasting results. The load density index method based onmultivariate analysis is proposed. Based on load density index method，which based onmultivariate analysis, in view of problem that calculation of previous load density index oftenignore actual historical load data and the non-uniform distribution of similar loads, the loaddensity index method based on cellular historical load data is proposed. Finally, through taking acity in the northeast of China as the analysis of engineering example, the effectiveness andfeasibility of the methods are demonstrated.